October continues to surprise with increased solar activity. On Thursday morning, a powerful flare of X3.3 level occurred on our star. And then on the eastern edge of the star began to develop large plasma release. There are signs that part of it will soon fly to Earth.
The Sun makes a full revolution in 27 days, so it happens that its active regions, leaving the western edge, have a chance of returning to the Earth again in 13-14 days. True, this happens infrequently and only for the largest centers of stellar activity. Now, it seems, this is exactly the case.
As Day.Az reports with reference to the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a flare with a power of X3.3 occurred on Thursday morning in the group of sunspots that, on the previous orbit, erupted with the most powerful explosion in the current solar cycle. activity. Let us remind you that this event happened on October 3, and the outbreak was assigned the index X9.0
Based on the position of the active center where yesterday’s explosion was recorded, in the next two weeks astronomers will again observe the passage of this formidable group of sunspots in front of our planet. In a week she will “look” exactly at the Earth. Most likely, it will not happen without the next powerful flares, and therefore geomagnetic storms. They, in turn, can lead to disruptions in communications and navigation and the appearance of bright auroras in mid- and even southern latitudes.
Scientists note that the largest spots of this group may still be located beyond the edge of the solar disk, and in this case they will appear in the field of view of earthly telescopes only in a couple of days. “Then it will be possible, in particular, to make the first estimates of the energy reserves in the active center,” notes the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and ISTP SB RAS.
Yesterday’s flare was accompanied by a large ejection of mass of solar matter (plasma), but with such a location of the center, it should have gone sideways and, accordingly, would not have affected our planet. This center of activity will move into the zone of influence on the Earth this coming weekend.
By this time, it will simultaneously become clear what changes have occurred in the region during the two weeks of absence and to what extent the risks associated with it remain, scientists believe.
However, it later became clear that the plasma ejection, which seemed to fly away, could hit the planet.
“According to data received from space coronagraphs, the mass ejection that occurred after this flare has components directed towards the Earth,” says the head of the laboratory, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Sergei Bogachev. “Since the explosion occurred at a very large angle to the Sun line,” The Earth is close to 90 degrees, this means that solar matter extends into space in a sector close to and even probably exceeding 180 degrees.
From the point of view of forecasting magnetic storms, such situations, when the ejection catches the Earth with its edge, are extremely unpleasant. In such cases, mathematical models almost always produce high-level storms, which, however, often do not materialize, since the matter ultimately passes close, but still past the planet. However, geomagnetic risks have now increased sharply from the almost zero level immediately after the outbreak.”
According to Bogachev, the maximum risks from this outbreak are tentatively expected in the middle of Saturday. In addition, another large plasma ejection is developing at the eastern edge of the Sun. And scientists see signs that part of it will also fly to Earth.
Recently it was reported that a magnetic storm will hit the Earth.