The first round of the Romanian presidential elections on 24 November was a further warning to the European Union (EU) of citizens’ deep socio-economic discontent and the growing discredit of customary parties and political institutions.The decision of the Constitutional Court to first order the counting of votes and then to study whether to annul the result of this first round has created confusion in the functioning of Romanian democracy a few days before the legislative elections of December 1st and the expected second round of the presidential elections of December 8th.
The Constitutional Court acted following the request presented by an ultra candidate, Cristian Terhes, who obtained only 1.03% of the votes. for their part,the Supreme Defense Council and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis attribute the unexpected victory in the first round of the former high-ranking UN official and ultra-pro-Russian Calin Georgescu to the illegalities of TikTok,which obtained 22.94% of the votes with a program of economic recovery and disengagement from the Ukrainian war.
Former liberal journalist Elena Lasconi, from the Save Romania Union (USR), the second most voted with a reformist anti-corruption program (19.17%), accused the defeated Social Democratic Prime Minister (PSD), Marcel ciolacu, of being behind the decisions of the Constitutional Court. Former Romanian president Traian Basescu and several political scientists fear that the Constitutional court’s interference in the electoral process could destabilize the country.
The electoral result, which could be annulled, has caused the collapse of the government coalition formed by the Social Democrats and the National Liberal Party (PNL), affiliated to the European People’s Party, who have lost 10 and 16 points respectively compared to the 2020 legislatures. The prime minister has arrived Ciolacu third and excluded from the second round with 19.14%, while the PNL candidate, the former general and former prime minister Nicolae Ciuca, was fifth, with 8.78%. If the 13.86% obtained by another ultra candidate, the leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), George Simion, is added to the percentage obtained by the two outsiders who won the first round of the presidential elections, the vote of protest exceeds 55.
Terhes, the detonator of the Constitutional Court’s decision, is a member of the European Parliament of the European Ultra Conservatives and Reformists (CRE).Tehres is notable for subsequent party changes. After years of harsh attacks on the Social Democrats, Tehres was elected to the European Parliament in 2019 as the PSD candidate. The following year he joined the Christian Democratic national Peasant Party. In 2023, he joined the far-right Romanian National Conservative Party (PNCR) to become its leader and is part of the ultra-bloc AUR. The Romanian political crisis occurs in a context of institutional discredit: only 29% of Romanians have trust in the government, while trust in Parliament drops to 28%, according to the annexes of the European Commission’s June Eurobarometer survey. Both percentages are below the EU average, which is already very low (33% and 36% respectively). Romanians’ trust in political parties is limited to 24%.
This mistrust is the result of governments’ lack of effective responses to high inequality, loss of purchasing power, underfunding of health and education, and worsening economic prospects. Added to this is persistent corruption, which, according to Openness International, involves the payment of bribes in public services.
in Romania, the richest 10% hold 55% of the national wealth, while the richest 50% of the population owns only 7.3% of the wealth, according to the Global Wealth Databook 2023 of the Union of Swiss Banks (UBS). According to the World Inequality Database (WID), the richest 10% receive 40.3% of the national income, while the richest 50% of the population receives only 15.6% of the total.
The increase in food prices by more than 50% as the pandemic has reduced the purchasing power of most families, as wage increases have lagged the increase in major household budget expenses.According to Eurostat, 32% of Romanians are at risk of poverty, 56% more than the EU average.Food poverty has worsened since 2019 and affects 23.3% of families, almost four times more than in Spain (6.4%).
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How might citizens’ discontent with traditional political parties influence future elections in romania?
Interview: The Implications of the Romanian Presidential Elections
Editor (Time.news): Welcome, Dr. Mariana Ionescu, a political analyst specializing in Eastern European politics. We appreciate you joining us today to unpack the implications of the recent Romanian presidential elections.
Dr. Ionescu: Thank you for having me. It’s a critical moment for Romanian democracy and the broader European Union.
Editor: Absolutely! The first round of elections on November 24th has sparked notable unrest and confusion, especially with the Constitutional Court’s interventions.What do you make of this chaotic situation?
Dr. Ionescu: It’s unprecedented for a court to intervene in such a way, ordering both the counting of votes and then considering annulment. This action not only calls into question the electoral process but also signifies a deepening discontent among the electorate. many see this as a failure of traditional political institutions, which have become increasingly discredited among citizens.
Editor: The results were surprising, with an ultra-pro-Russian candidate, Călin Georgescu, unexpectedly coming out on top.What factors do you think contributed to his rise?
Dr. Ionescu: Georgescu’s rise can be attributed to a combination of socio-economic discontent and a reaction against established parties. Many Romanians feel abandoned by their leaders, particularly regarding economic stability and job security. Georgescu’s message resonated with those who are skeptical of the EU and its influence, as well as with those disillusioned by conventional politics.
Editor: You mentioned socio-economic discontent. Can you expand on how that is influencing the political landscape in Romania?
Dr. Ionescu: certainly. Economic challenges, such as rising inflation, unemployment, and a general sense of stagnation, have led many citizens to look for alternatives. They often view the traditional parties as part of the problem rather than the solution. This discontent creates fertile ground for extreme candidates who promise immediate change, even if their ideologies might potentially be controversial or unsettling to many.
Editor: The upcoming legislative elections on December 1st and the second round of the presidential elections on December 8th are right around the corner. What do you predict will happen?
Dr. Ionescu: It’s difficult to say for sure,as the situation is highly fluid. However,the confusion created by the Constitutional Court could led to lower voter turnout,as people may feel disillusioned or uncertain about the legitimacy of the process. On the other hand, if Georgescu can galvanize his supporters, he may gain even more traction. The key will be whether traditional parties can reconnect with the electorate and address their concerns effectively.
Editor: That’s a critical point. With the EU observing the developments closely, what does this mean for Romania’s relationship with the Union moving forward?
Dr. Ionescu: The EU will be concerned about the potential rise of populism within a member state.A move towards pro-Russian sentiment could complicate Romania’s alignment with EU policies. If citizens continue to support candidates who challenge the established order, it may lead to tensions regarding EU directives on democracy, governance, and economic stability.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Ionescu. Your insights shed light on a tumultuous moment in Romanian politics. It’s clear the coming weeks will be crucial for the future of the country and its relationship with the EU.
Dr. Ionescu: Thank you for having me. I’m eager to see how these developments unfold. It’s a pivotal time indeed!