Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutepublished in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate struggles to approve aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, since Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Dr. Elena Petrov, Expert on International Relations
Time.news Editor: Good day, Dr. Petrov. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the recent dynamics of Western support for Ukraine.
Dr. Elena Petrov: Thank you for having me. It’s a crucial topic, and I’m glad to share insights.
Editor: A recent report from the Kiel Institute indicates a decline in new aid allocations to Ukraine between August 2023 and January 2024. What factors are contributing to this decrease?
Dr. Petrov: Several aspects are at play. First, the prolonged nature of the conflict has led to donor fatigue. Countries that were initially enthusiastic about providing military and humanitarian aid may now be reassessing their commitments, especially as domestic priorities take precedence.
Editor: The report also noted struggles in the U.S. Senate regarding aid approval. How significant is this political gridlock for Ukraine?
Dr. Petrov: The U.S. has been a major backbone of support for Ukraine. A failure to approve new aid packages could not only impact military assistance but also send a signal to other potential donors about the commitments of the West. This could exacerbate the challenges the Ukrainian government is facing on multiple fronts.
Editor: The European Union also faced difficulties in passing a substantial aid package. What are the implications of Hungary’s objections on this issue?
Dr. Petrov: Hungary’s reluctance is symptomatic of broader divisions within the EU regarding the response to the war. Such blockages can stall financial support and create uncertainty, compelling member states to rethink their strategies. If consensus continues to be elusive, Ukraine might find itself in a precarious position.
Editor: The Kiel Institute report highlights a decrease in the number of donors. Are we witnessing a shift towards a more concentrated core of support?
Dr. Petrov: Absolutely. The concentration of aid among a few key players, mainly the U.S. and some European countries, could lead to issues in sustainability. While core supporters like the U.S. and Germany may continue backing Ukraine, other nations might retract their support, essentially fortifying a ‘donor club’ that could be under greater strain as time goes on.
Editor: In your opinion, what strategies should Ukraine adopt to navigate this shifting landscape of international support?
Dr. Petrov: Ukraine needs to diversify its support base and deepen its diplomatic ties beyond the traditional allies. This includes reaching out to countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America that may have been ambivalent or neutral thus far, as well as strengthening narratives around democratic resilience and human rights that resonate universally.
Editor: With the dynamics of support changing, what do you foresee for Ukraine’s future in terms of international backing?
Dr. Petrov: The future is uncertain but not without hope. If Ukraine can effectively communicate its needs and successes while appealing for continued global solidarity, it might just maintain the momentum needed to ensure support flows, albeit in potentially different forms. However, should the current trends continue, the country might face ever-increasing challenges.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Petrov, for sharing your insights on this important issue. It appears that the road ahead for Ukraine will require both strategic solidarity and innovative diplomacy.
Dr. Petrov: Thank you for the opportunity to discuss this pressing matter. It’s critical for all of us to stay informed and engaged with Ukraine’s situation.