Moscow: When Russian President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine in the year 2022, he hoped that he would soon topple the Kiev government. However, after almost three years this war is not over. Simultaneously occurring, Russia is facing a major setback in the Middle East with the fall of syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The question is arising whether the Syrian coup will affect the Ukraine war? Russia had militarily intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015. Russia’s aim was to protect the power of Assad,it’s key ally in the Gulf. For years, Assad’s regime appeared strong with Russia’s support. Though, through an attack in November, rebels removed Assad within 11 days. Due to Ukraine being embroiled in the war, it became difficult for Russia to help Syria. The coup in Syria may be a blow to Russia. But analysts believe this is unlikely to make a major difference in the Ukraine war.
Russian army may return
Russia maintains a relatively small military presence in Syria.About 6000-7000 Russian military personnel, including private military companies, are in Syria.Due to the coup, Russian forces may now withdraw in full or in part. Air support,reconnaissance and other intelligence assets can now be used by Russia in Ukraine. However, this will not have any meaningful impact on the Ukraine war.
‘The Russian military presence in Syria is not large enough to substantially influence the frontline in Ukraine,’ says Andrey Kovalenko,head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation. Apart from this, military challenges may have to be faced regarding removal of navy or air force from syria.In particular, ships are unlikely to pass through the Turkish-controlled Bosporus.
Will action be intensified against Ukraine?
Russia may get some help, however small, from removing Syria’s military assets. But with the fall of Assad, action against Ukraine may now intensify.Some experts argue that Putin has been defeated in Syria. Now to compensate for this, Russia may feel the need to establish control in Ukraine. Though, Ukraine is considering the fall of Assad’s government as a big blow to Russia. The Ukrainians are trying to show that this is a direct defeat for ‘nuclear power’ Russia.
How might changes in Russia’s military strategy impact international support for Ukraine?
Interview with andrey Kovalenko, Head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation
Time.news Editor: Thank you for joining us today, Andrey. With the recent developments in Syria and the ongoing war in Ukraine, how do you assess the current situation for Russia?
Andrey Kovalenko: Thank you for having me. The war in Ukraine and the recent coup in Syria are intricately linked, but we must understand that Russia’s challenges in one theater do not necessarily translate into notable setbacks in another.While the fall of Assad is a blow to Russia’s influence in the Middle East, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the course of the ukraine war.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned the coup in Syria as a setback for Russia. Can you explain how this could impact Russia’s military resources in the region and their operations in Ukraine?
Andrey Kovalenko: Certainly. Russia’s military presence in Syria is relatively small, with around 6,000-7,000 personnel. This includes private military companies, which can definitely help sustain operations but do not represent a large enough force to influence frontline engagement in Ukraine. The potential withdrawal or repositioning of these forces may allow for some assets, like air support and intelligence, to be redirected towards Ukraine, but the overall impact on the war is expected to be minimal.
Time.news Editor: Considering these developments, do you foresee an increase in Russian military actions against Ukraine as a way to compensate for their losses in Syria?
Andrey Kovalenko: That’s a possibility. Some analysts believe that, feeling defeated in Syria, Russia may intensify its military efforts in ukraine to demonstrate resilience and restore its image.However, the nature of Russian military operations in Ukraine is fundamentally different, and simply shifting resources from Syria will not solve the systemic issues Russia faces in Ukraine.
Time.news Editor: How do you think Ukraine perceives these changes in Russia’s military strategy, especially with respect to the fall of Assad’s regime?
Andrey Kovalenko: Ukraine is viewing the fall of Assad as a significant blow to Russia’s narrative as a nuclear power. The notion of a nuclear state facing setbacks in its military campaigns is noteworthy for Ukrainians and the international community. It bolsters Ukraine’s stance that Russia’s grasp on control is weakening, which can translate into increased support for our defensive efforts from Western allies.
time.news Editor: As we navigate these complex geopolitical changes, what key insights would you provide to readers about the implications for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader region?
Andrey Kovalenko: Readers should understand that the geopolitical landscape is shifting. While Russia may attempt to recalibrate from the setback in Syria, the core issues in Ukraine are deeply rooted and won’t simply resolve with military repositioning. The dynamics can lead to increased tensions, so it’s crucial for readers to stay informed about both fronts.Strategic support for ukraine continues to be vital, as does the understanding that Russia’s military strategy may become more aggressive as they look to reclaim lost ground.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Andrey, for your invaluable insights. As the situation continues to develop, we appreciate your perspective on these intricate conflicts’ implications.
Andrey Kovalenko: Thank you for having me. It’s importent to keep the dialogue open as these events unfold.