2023-12-31 13:20:37
The cross : In Moscow, triumphalist speeches have multiplied in recent weeks. Has Russia already won?
Ruslan Poukhov: No. The war is getting bogged down. For the moment, we have only limited successes which, after the initial failures, certainly restore morale to the army and help boost public opinion. But, on the ground, the front moves insignificantly. In fact, the military situation is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War: a very extended line with relatively few soldiers on both sides.
On the Russian side, we can estimate some 180,000 men, including Wagner’s ex-paramilitaries now incorporated into the army. On the Ukrainian side, there are more of them, around 200,000 men. And that’s the paradox! After the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive this summer, the Russians are trying to make tactical advances but with fewer troops: two Russians against three Ukrainians! The logic of an offensive would require the proportion to be reversed… Russian advances will therefore remain limited.
After two years of war, each side knows almost everything about the other’s capabilities, particularly the lines of defense. Any attempt at a massive Russian advance therefore risks failing in the same way that the Ukrainian counter-offensive failed. As a result, the war of positions can last a long time. The losses are already very heavy: officially around 8,000 dead on the Russian side, but in fact probably several tens of thousands. Especially since we must include the losses within Wagner’s troops and those of our local allies in Donbass.
What are the respective strengths of the two armies?
R. B. : The two armies now act on more or less equal terms. The Russians have the advantage of fire, with more artillery and more ammunition. The Ukrainians have the advantage of information and better means of communication: they have fewer shells than us but, thanks to Western aid, they have more information and are therefore more effective on their targets. . For a similar objective, the Russians need twenty adjustment shells, while the Ukrainians need only two shots.
The Russian army benefits from air superiority. But, with old Soviet weapons systems that Moscow had left behind at the time of independence, the Ukrainians still managed, at first, to hold on with their anti-aircraft defense. Now they benefit from Western technologies. Finally, paradoxically, the Ukrainians, with their limited naval resources, were able to force part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw. Their hybrid drones (aerial and submarine) made it possible to wage an asymmetrical war, while defending their lines in order to avoid a Russian naval operation on Odessa.
What mistake was made by the Russian army?
R. B. : The mistake, at the beginning, was to believe that the Ukrainians would accept the arrival of the Russian army. Moscow believed that it could easily repeat the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Soviet army in 1968. Was it a mistake of the military command or others, who whispered in the ear of Vladimir Putin, promising him a quick and easy victory? We have to remain realistic. The Russian army had created a myth of invincibility after having managed to retake Crimea without a fight in 2014, then having successfully carried out its military operation in Syria in 2015-2016. The special operation in Ukraine was, on the contrary, marked by two failures which traumatized us. First of all, the first offensive of February-March 2022: some in Moscow had believed that this would be an easy advance towards kyiv, the initial goal of the offensive. Then the retreat from Kharkiv, in the fall of 2022, was a new slap in the face.
Today, Moscow still sticks to its initial maximalist objectives (neutralizing all of Ukraine, change of power in kyiv). But there are simply not enough fighters and not enough means to make them happen. It was a mistake to believe him at first. To break through, it would be necessary to triple the active army and double the reserves. Is Moscow really ready to line up two million soldiers to go as far as Odessa and Lviv? Then to pay for the reconstruction of all these enormous territories which will emerge in ruins from the conflict?
What are Moscow’s objectives now and what results on the front will allow it to speak of victory?
R. B. : This is a very difficult question to answer! Victory will be… when political power decides. He can sell any result to public opinion as a “victory”. But an end to the conflict cannot be decided unilaterally. The key is therefore not only in Moscow. She is also in Washington. This is why I am convinced that, parallel to the conflict, Russian-American negotiations are underway. Both sides must find a solution that can satisfy both warring parties.
There are already signals of more or less tacit agreement: for example, the Russian army has shown that it has the means to massively bomb Kiev, but its shooting stops every time a leader Westerner visits the Ukrainian capital… Is there an agreement or a modus vivendi? So, I think that Moscow’s objective is to end the conflict to break the deadlock but with enough results on the ground to be able to convince the Russians of a victory. For the moment, public opinion is ready to continue the operation and Vladimir Putin continues the conflict.
Vladimir Putin has ordered a 15% increase in the strength of his army. Is this a new military mobilization for the Ukrainian front?
R. B. : Don’t forget that it’s not just the conflict in Ukraine! We must continue to protect the rest of our very long borders… In the West, relations with our western neighbors (Baltic countries, Sweden, Finland) have become strained and, on the ground, require military reinforcement. Without forgetting Poland’s border with our Belarusian ally.
Furthermore, in the South, our relations with Turkey remain complex and contradictory. There are regular tensions with Georgia. And, with Japan, the situation remains very particular because of old territorial disputes that remain unresolved. So, generally speaking, Russia must provide all-out defense. It is very costly in terms of men and resources. Hence this 15% increase in staff numbers. But also 70% of the defense budget…
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