“There may be difficulties, but there will be no threat to our alliance relationship.”
Joseph Nye, professor emeritus at Harvard University and a world-renowned scholar of international politics, predicted that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s negotiating style will be a strategy of using uncertainty as a weapon, but will not threaten alliance relationships.
Professor Emeritus Nye said this during a panel discussion at the symposium ‘New U.S.-Japanese Administration and the Future of the Indo-Pacific’ jointly held in Tokyo on this day by the Nippon Keizai Shimbun and the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
When it was decided that former President Trump would return to power, Professor Emeritus Nye pointed out, “Trump has been using the uncertainty of unpredictability as a weapon in policy and negotiations.”
He continued, “If you cannot predict (Trump’s actions), you end up compromising in negotiations,” emphasizing that other countries will be influenced by Trump’s negotiation stance that emphasizes deals.
During his presidential campaign, President-elect Trump publicly expressed his intention to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Professor Emeritus Nye also mentioned the possibility that President-elect Trump may use this trade policy as leverage to enter into a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
However, he said, “The importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance is completely rooted beyond party lines,” and predicted that with Trump’s return to power, “there may be difficulties, but no situation that threatens the alliance will arise.”
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, who attended the symposium on this day, pointed out regarding ‘Trump diplomacy’, “Trump has nothing he truly thinks about relationships with other countries around the world.”
Former Deputy Minister Armitage also expressed the view that “no major changes other than Trump’s exaggerated expressions can be expected” in the next six months from the inauguration of the next administration.
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