2024-10-30 07:07:00
INSEE notes that domestic demand “is regaining momentum under the effect of the recovery in household consumption”. However, investments are decreasing, especially those of businesses.
French GDP increased by 0.4% in the third quarter, INSEE announced on Wednesday 30 October in a first estimate consistent with its forecasts. “Stimulated by the Olympic and Paralympic Games”according to the institute. INSEE observes that domestic demand “gains momentum under the effect of the recovery in family consumption”. This summer it increased by 0.5%, after remaining stable in the second quarter, “about half is due to the consumption of recreational services within the Games”Household consumption represents more than half of GDP.
On the other hand, investments decrease (-0.8% after -0.1% in the second quarter), and especially those of businesses (-1.4% after -0.2%) while company executives spent summer fearing the consequences of the dissolution of the National Assembly on the economy. Overall, domestic demand (excluding stocks) contributes positively to GDP growth in the third quarter: +0.2 points after +0.1 points in the second.
Consequences of dissolution
The contribution of foreign trade remains slightly positive in the third quarter (+0.1 points after +0.2 points) because imports fell more sharply (-0.7% after +0.1%) than exports (-0 .5% after +0.5%). Finally, changes in inventories contribute to growth by +0.1 points, after a zero contribution in the second quarter.
In total, “growth resources”i.e. what the annual growth would be if GDP remained stable in the fourth quarter, it is already at 1.1% at the end of the third quarter, according to the government’s forecast for the full year. However, the National Statistical Institute does not expect further developments, as it expects zero growth in the fourth quarter. The institute revised growth for the first quarter slightly downwards (+0.2% instead of +0.3%), but this is essentially a rounding effect, since the revision before rounding was only – 0.01 points.
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