2024-10-15 12:36:00
The current Swedish government was formed after the September 2022 parliamentary elections by bringing together an unprecedented coalition stretching from the center right to the far right. The association of the far-right populist party – the Sweden Democrats – with the new parliamentary majority was made possible by the conclusion of a government platform called the “Tidö agreement”.
The Sweden Democrats were thus able to monetize their parliamentary support in exchange for influence on the political agenda regardless of their actual participation in government. This agreement concluded in 2022 promised in particular a paradigm shift in Sweden’s asylum policy.
The internationalist tradition of social democracy
Sweden’s generous asylum policy has long been an indicator of the influence of social democracy and its internationalist tradition. Sweden therefore welcomed on average 13% of the total number of asylum seekers into the European Union during the first half of the 2010s, while the Kingdom accounted for 0.02% of the Union’s total population.
However, the impact of the 2015 migration crisis, which resulted in the reception of 162,000 refugees on Swedish soil in just one year, led the Social Democratic government to significantly change its policy. The number of asylum seekers welcomed on Swedish territory therefore dropped to 29,000 people in 2016. It gradually stabilized at around 15,000 until it reached 1% of the total volume of asylum seekers settled on Swedish territory.
The conclusion of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum, which provides for a profound reorganization of the provisions of Dublin 3, was largely prepared by the Swedish government for its presidency of the European Union in 2023. Its application could pave the way for the suspension of the reception of asylum seekers on Swedish territory in exchange for a financial contribution.
The Swedish Democrats against the Social Democratic Party
However, this development does not constitute a turning point compared to the Social Democratic Party which declares itself in favor of a restrictive migration policy. This is also the continuation of the action of the European Commissioner for Internal Affairs – Ylva Johansson – who comes from the ranks of the Swedish Social Democratic Party.
For the Sweden Democrats, who have made the promotion of nativism and ethnic chauvinism one of the hallmarks of their political offering, it is essential that the government gives a turn to immigration with the Social Democratic Party. The Swedish Democrats are in fact trying to present themselves as an alternative to the Social Democrats designated as responsible for Sweden’s evolution into a multicultural society characterized by an increase in crime.
The Tidö Agreement therefore contained a provision calling for determining the level of economic aid to encourage foreigners to leave Sweden while remaining sustainable for public finances.
Spectacular increase in aid for the return of migrants
In August 2024, the government announced that net migration in Sweden would be negative for the first time since 1997. The government immediately announced its intention to increase the return assistance introduced in 1984 from 10,000 to 350,000 SEK – i.e. from 880 euros to 30,000 euros per person – starting from 1 January 2026. It is inspired by this Danish return assistance set at 13,400 euros. This spectacular increase contradicts the conclusions of the commission of inquiry set up by the government to look into the matter. These conclusions, made public in June 2024, recommended not increasing the level of repatriation assistance.
The media coverage of the expected increase in this aid contrasts with the real scope of this system. The commission of inquiry therefore found that in Sweden between 2013 and 2023, 272 requests for return assistance were submitted and that over the course of these eleven years 41 of them were accepted. In these budget forecasts, however, the government expects a dramatic increase in the number of recipients of this assistance upon return from 300 people in 2025 to 4,100 people in 2026 and 2,628 people in 2027.
The estimates seem particularly high when compared to Danish return assistance which is awarded on average to 300 people per year and which has never seen more than 600 beneficiaries in the same year.
A measure with a strong symbolic meaning
The question of the extent of the beneficiaries of this return assistance remains open. It is currently reserved for people with a residence permit such as refugees, people in need of protection or people in particularly difficult circumstances. It is also open to their loved ones. The commission of inquiry, however, recommended its extension to people who had acquired Swedish nationality, excluding instead those who were in an irregular situation.
The increase in return assistance is a measure with a strong symbolic meaning that embodies the desire to break with the Swedish tradition of welcome. The rejection of the conclusions formulated by the experts of the commission of inquiry makes it devoid of consensus. It therefore seems destined to fuel the campaign for the 2026 parliamentary elections which will be held at the moment in which it should produce all its effects.
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