Tabula drops 14.5% after the reports; Expected income in the future is lower than the estimates

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tabula
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The Israeli company reports revenues of $371.29 million and earnings per share of $0.16, analysts’ expectations were for earnings of $0.05 per share. The company expects that in the first quarter of 2023 its revenues will be between 299 and 325 million dollars, a lower mid-term than the analysts’ expectations of 325.9 million dollars. In the annual outlook, the company expects revenues of between 1.419 billion dollars and 1.469 billion dollars, the analysts’ expectation was 1.424 billion dollars.

The company expects in 2023 an adjusted EBITDA of between 60 and 80 million dollars and a gross profit of between 416 and 436 million dollars. In 2024, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of at least $200 million and at least $100 million of free cash flow, thanks in part to the fact that the company expects the partnership with Yahoo to begin generating partial revenue that year.

Towards the end of November, Yahoo announced that it would acquire 25% of Tabula’s shares, which jumped 43% on the trading day after the announcement. Biahoo and Tabula estimate that the transaction will generate revenues of at least one billion dollars a year, where according to the 30-year partnership agreement, Tabula will receive exclusivity to sell original ads on Yahoo’s websites. The companies will share the revenue from the sale of ads, but did not disclose the revenue distribution between them. Tabula hopes to see this as a contribution to its profits starting in the second half of 2023.

After the publication of the agreement, the CEO of Tabula, Adam Singolda, was interviewed by Bizportal and said: “I and Tabula always had a dream to work with Yahoo. We grew up on Yahoo. This is a company that is an icon and it is a very exciting deal for us. It’s a good deal for everyone – advertisers, content sites, customers. This transaction is very critical for our shareholders. It increases the revenue per share, the EBITDA, the cash flow – that’s a 5-fold doubling. For business owners and advertisers who work with us, it’s a win-win, because they’ll have more ‘scale’. They will actually have a significant signal on consumers.” (For the full article and the interview)

Last December, the company signed a multi-year partnership agreement with the Time Out group, where the magazine will use Tabula’s technology to increase user involvement and increase revenue. Among the components agreed to be integrated into the websites: the Taboola feed, Taboola Newsroom, Explore More, a mid-article component and more.

After the reports were published, Singolda said: “Although 2022 was a challenging year in terms of advertising spending, our financial performance was stable. It was our second best year in establishing new partnerships with publishers – approximately 90% more revenue per month than previous years, including The return of several key publicists who left us in the past. And of course, we signed a 30-year partnership with Yahoo that will bring about a tremendous change.”

Singolda added and said: “2023 will be a year of investments for us. Although it is difficult to accept declines for this year, we will return to growth in the second half of 2023 and while it is very rare that management teams know what the future will look like, 2024 will be a step up in the level of income with the entry into activity with Yahoo. We Expect to generate at least $200 million in adjusted EBITDA and $100 million in free cash flow in 2024, although this will be a partial year in terms of activity with Yahoo. I’m also very excited about our progress in the areas we’ve made a high priority for the company — performance-based advertising, e-commerce and Header Bidding. These areas will drive us to significant growth in 2024 and beyond. I believe that in 2024 Tabula will become the largest advertising company in the world on the open network, on a scale comparable to Snap, Pinterest and Twitter.”

The stock recorded its all-time low last November when it stood at a price of about 1.6 dollars per share, since then it rose more than 180% in early February. In the last month and as of this moment, the stock has lost about 21% and the value of the company stands at 880 million dollars.

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