D-day for the Barnier team. This Wednesday,the National Assembly will decide during a session that promises to be stormy on the two censure motions tabled together with the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS). the government is on the edge of the precipice, while left-wing troops such as those of the National Rally have already announced that they want to overthrow it. Taxes, pensions, public finances… If he won, censorship would have serious consequences for the French.To see more clearly,Le Figaro invites you to rediscover our decryptions on this explosive file.
Pensions: censorship, good deal for pensions?
If we vote this Wednesday, the governmentS censorship will also lead to the rejection of the PLFSS. with a direct effect on pensions: “The main beneficiaries [de la censure] they will be large companies, very rich families and pensioners, especially those with medium and high pensions”estimates Gilbert Cet, president of the Retirement Orientation Council.
Censorship: these are the thorny points of the social security budget on which the government is betting its future
The text that could bring down the government includes many points on which the opposition and the majority have clashed. Employer contributions, pensions, healthcare costs… However, parliamentarians have made numerous changes to reconcile the difficulties. Without success.
Individuals, businesses: who are the winners and losers of censorship?
If the Minister of Economy, Antoine Armand, believes so “all sectors will lose”censorship would not have the same consequences for all French people. Some thus risk doing well by avoiding, for example, a strengthening of taxation aimed at making them participants in the national effort to reduce the French deficit. Conversely, others, such as farmers, would lose state commitments to them.
taxation: Towards an income tax increase for nearly 18 million families
Parliament’s rejection of the 2025 draft budget and the draft Social Security Financing bill (PLFSS) would lead to a cascade of unpredictable events,some of which could impact household wallets. This is, in any case, the leading argument brandished as Monday evening by the right and the center to punish Marine le Pen. “He says he wants to work on the purchasing power of the French,but how can he agree to bring down this government,and therefore this budget,even if this means increasing taxes? ?”MP (Together for the Republic) Prisca Thevenot asked CNews on Tuesday.
According to UFC calculations, in the event of censorship, 17.6 million families would see their income tax mechanically increased.
French employers are “appalled” by the prospect of censorship
“The Paris 2024 Olympics were the last resistance of old France before the downgrading of our country was revealed to the eyes of the world” : formulated by the CEO of a French flagship,these comments summarize the anger and concern of some French employers. Everyone is now waiting to see how the situation will evolve, fearing that one crisis will follow another: “We haven’t hit rock bottom yet, the situation will get worse”summarizes the scheme of a CAC40 flagship.
Towards a financial “storm” in case of censorship?
Questioned on the TF1 set, the prime minister estimated that censorship would risk leading to something “a storm problably quite serious”. “We already borrow very high interest rates, which we are obliged to meet to finance our debt to Chinese or American investors. They are currently almost at the level of Greece”insisted Michel Barnier. Others, like Marine le Pen or Eric Coquerel, are more reassuring. So who is right?
In case of censorship, is the payment of pensions and social benefits in danger?
Does censorship risk leading to “social closure”? “Depriving the French of the social security budget means leaving urssaf with only a few weeks of liquidity to pay pensions, reimburse healthcare and finance taxes”recently warned the rapporteur on the social security budget in the National Assembly, Yannick Neuder (LR). Right?
Police, education… A decision with serious consequences for the public service
In case of censorship, the government will not be the only one to lose. If the budget texts contained therein contained a series of savings «savory», which would have forced some ministries or sectors to tighten their belts, also included various measures «Sweet», which will also be swept away.The decision will therefore not be”not neutral for the public service” and agents, warned the minister of Civil Service, Guillaume Kasbarian.
Can censorship put france in “lockdown”?
“Financial crisis”, “economic and social crisis”, “bankruptcy”… Recently, many political leaders have raised the alarm about the consequences of censorship, which could, according to them, lead to a blockade scenario, like the one stop American style. A credible threat?
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How might the potential rejection of the PLFSS affect vulnerable populations and income inequality?
Title: the Stakes of Censure: An interview with Gilbert Cet, Expert on Pension Policy
Editor (time.news): Thank you for joining us today, Gilbert. With the national assembly set to decide on the censure motions regarding the Social Security Finance Bill, can you explain the potential ramifications for pensions if the government loses this vote?
Gilbert Cet: Thank you for having me.If the censure motions pass, we could see important disruptions. The primary consequence would be the rejection of the Social Security finance Bill (PLFSS). This bill is critical, as it includes essential measures for funding pensions. If it fails, large companies and affluent individuals might potentially be the main beneficiaries, while those with medium to high pensions would likely see the most immediate impact.
Editor: It sounds like a precarious situation.You mentioned affluent individuals benefitting. How do you see this affecting the broader population, specifically those reliant on pension adjustments?
Gilbert Cet: Indeed, the broader ramifications would be quite concerning. while some may evade increased taxation due to the absence of the PLFSS, others—especially vulnerable groups like farmers—could suffer due to the government’s withdrawal of promised support.This shifting landscape could create further inequality among citizens, where the rich gain disproportionately compared to the middle and lower classes.
Editor: Given the opposition’s fierce stance on censure and the significant changes that could ensue, what do you think are the key sticking points in the social security budget that have led to this situation?
Gilbert Cet: the main points of contention revolve around employer contributions, pension funding, and healthcare costs. Despite attempts from parliamentarians to negotiate and reconcile these issues,consensus has remained elusive. The government’s future hinges on this budget, and the clash between opposition and majority parties poses a significant risk.
Editor: Minister Antoine Armand suggested that “all sectors will lose” if censure occurs. Are there specific sectors or groups you believe might come out ahead nonetheless?
Gilbert Cet: There are definitely discrepancies in who stands to gain or lose. As an example, wealthier families may escape some tax burdens, while those in sectors like agriculture could find themselves facing cuts to state commitments. This creates a divided landscape, with those in stable positions managing to avoid the brunt of cuts, while others, especially in more vulnerable sectors, will bear the full consequences.
Editor: What could be the immediate financial impact on households if the parliament rejects both the PLFSS and the draft budget, as you mentioned?
Gilbert Cet: If these motions are rejected, we’re likely to see a chain reaction in taxation. Specifically, nearly 18 million households could be hit with an increase in income tax, which is a considerable burden. This could lead to decreased disposable income and increased financial strain for many families across the country.
Editor: Thank you for your insights, Gilbert. As the situation unfolds, it truly seems the outcome will have lasting effects on not just pensions but the entire French social fabric.
Gilbert Cet: Absolutely, the political fallout from these motions could set the stage for broader changes in how we manage social security and taxation moving forward. It’s a critical moment we’re witnessing,and one that could redefine financial stability for many in France.
Editor: We will keep a close eye on this developing story. Thank you once again for sharing your expertise with us.