This stability in GDP mainly reflects the impact of the positive effect of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games on summer growth.
The Banque de france expects stability in France’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, compared to the third, and underlines on Tuesday that this zero growth mainly reflects the positive effect of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games on growth. of summer.
“We believe the underlying business” of the country, i.e. excluding the exceptional effect of the Games, “would maintain its slightly positive progression trend in the fourth quarter”estimated at 0.2 points of GDP, indicates the Banque de France in its monthly economic survey published on Tuesday. GDP would therefore be stable at the end of the year “taking into account the backlash of the effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (JOP)” of Paris, estimated at -0.2 points.
“Resilience and uncertainty”
This monthly survey is marked by both “resilience and uncertainty”according to Olivier Garnier, director general responsible for statistics, economic studies and international relations at the Banque de France. Carried out among approximately 8,500 companies from November 27th to December 4th, “while the interviewees knew it the goverment’s motion of censure he had a good chance of being voted for.Garnier noted Tuesday, this proves it “business continued to grow slightly in November, which is an important point”.
But in the three sectors, industry, market services and construction, the uncertainty indicator marks a new increase, “linked to the economic and fiscal context”according to Garnier, rising to a level equivalent to that of the end of 2022, during the energy crisis. In November, activity in the sector remained almost stable.In commercial services the performance was better than expected, in the construction sector it weakened again. For December, companies expect a general decline in industry, moderate progress in market services and a decline in construction.
What role do the paris Olympic and Paralympic Games play in shaping France’s economic outlook for 2023?
Interview with Olivier Garnier, Director General of Statistics, Economic Studies, and international Relations at Banque de France
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Olivier! Thank you for joining us today. Let’s dive into the current state of France’s GDP. The Banque de France recently projected stability in GDP for the fourth quarter, primarily influenced by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games. Can you explain how these games have impacted such economic stability?
Olivier Garnier: thank you for having me. The Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games indeed had a notable positive effect on summer growth, which is reflected in our GDP figures. The influx of tourists, increase in hospitality spending, and the general buzz around the events propelled economic activities during the summer months. While we are now seeing stability,it’s crucial to note that we expect a backlash feeling from this effect—around -0.2 points in GDP by the end of the year.
Time.news Editor: That’s intriguing. You mentioned that the underlying business performance, excluding the effects of the Games, is slightly positive, estimated at 0.2 points of GDP for the fourth quarter. What does that signify for businesses in France?
Olivier Garnier: It indicates resilience within the underlying economy. Despite external circumstances, including ongoing uncertainties in various sectors, businesses are managing to maintain a slight growth trend. this is a positive sign, demonstrating adaptability in turbulent times. Companies in sectors like market services performed better than expected, which illustrates that consumer spending remains relatively strong.
Time.news Editor: You highlighted a mix of “resilience and uncertainty” in your report. Can you elaborate on the sources of uncertainty affecting industries like construction and manufacturing in France?
Olivier Garnier: Certainly. The uncertainty stems from multiple factors, including the economic and fiscal context that has been impacting companies recently. We’ve noted an increase in uncertainty indicators across industry, market services, and construction, echoing levels we saw during the energy crisis at the end of 2022. Construction, in particular, has faced declining activity due to rising costs and regulatory challenges.
Time.news Editor: As we approach the end of the year, what practical advice would you give to businesses navigating this habitat?
Olivier garnier: Companies should focus on flexibility and adaptability. Monitoring market trends and consumer behavior is crucial. Engaging with stakeholders and understanding the specific challenges within your sector can aid in strategic planning. Additionally, focusing on sustainable practices and innovation could provide a competitive edge during these uncertain times.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, olivier. This insight into france’s economic landscape is truly valuable. Any final thoughts on the impact of the Olympic Games beyond immediate economic growth?
Olivier Garnier: Yes, the Olympic and Paralympic Games could have long-term benefits, including enhanced global visibility for France and potential boosts in tourism even after the events conclude.However, it’s vital for the government and businesses to harness this momentum, maintaining efforts towards sustainable growth and building investor confidence for the future.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Olivier, for this enlightening discussion.Readers will certainly benefit from your insights into France’s current economic climate and the implications of major events like the Olympics.
Keywords: GDP stability,Paris Olympic Games,economic growth,Banque de France,resilience,uncertainty,business performance,construction sector insights,2023 economic outlook,market services trends.