In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, former President Donald Trump has secured a commanding lead over potential rival Ron DeSantis in the Republican primary. Trump leads DeSantis by a margin of 37 points, nearly twice as large as any previous frontrunner in modern presidential primaries.
Despite the early lead, it is important to note that there is still plenty of time left before the Iowa caucuses in January and the candidates have yet to participate in debates. Moreover, Trump’s position is unlike any previous candidate with such a large lead, as he faces numerous criminal indictments and investigations.
However, the poll data suggests that Trump has an unwavering base of loyal supporters representing more than one-third of the Republican electorate. These supporters see no flaws in Trump and dismiss the criminal allegations against him. They strongly believe that Republicans must stand behind him in the face of these investigations.
While Trump’s support is impressive, it still falls short of a majority in the Republican primary. The rest of the Republican electorate is divided into two groups. One group remains open to supporting Trump, while the other group opposes him. The opposing group consists of educated, affluent, and moderate voters who do not view Trump favorably and believe he has committed crimes.
Challenging Trump requires a candidate to unite the fractious opposition and consolidate the majority of the Republican electorate. Ron DeSantis, who initially seemed to have the potential to appeal to both conservatives and moderates skeptical of Trump, has struggled to gain traction. Without the issues of fighting against “wokeness” and COVID-19 restrictions, DeSantis has positioned himself as a typical conservative Republican, making it difficult to appeal to moderate voters.
In addition to these challenges, DeSantis does not even enjoy a clear advantage over Trump in a hypothetical general election against President Biden. This disadvantage puts DeSantis in a precarious position as he attempts to build a viable opposition to Trump.
Overall, while it may be premature to declare Trump “inevitable,” the poll data suggests that defeating him will be an uphill battle for any candidate. Trump’s unwavering base of supporters and the divided nature of the Republican electorate make it extremely challenging to mount a successful campaign against him. Only time will tell if a candidate can effectively consolidate the opposition and pose a serious threat to Trump’s bid for the nomination.