The vote count advanced tonight in the United States in legislative and gubernatorial elections that will mark the course of the country and of President Joe Biden and in which the progress of the economy, inflation and abortion were decisive issues. Republicans wanted to retake control of Congress. with a resounding victory, while the Democrats tried to achieve a worthy defeat that would leave them alive for the 2024 presidential elections.
These mid-term elections, in which traditionally opposition party usually winsacquired crucial relevance due to the divisive context in which the country finds itself and the background of the last elections of 2020, when Donald Trump lost, denounced fraud and did not recognize his defeat, a mantra that he continues to repeat today.
Just one thing from tonight: 34% of voters said that Biden had not been legitimately elected in the last presidential elections, according to a CNN exit poll.
Americans voted on Tuesday for the renewal of the entire House of Representatives (435 deputies), a third of the Senate (35 senators) and 36 governors, plus various state and local authorities. Referendums on abortion rights were also held in four states: California, Vermont, Kentucky, and Michigan, and others on the free use of marijuana.
The battle for Congress
The Democrats currently hold control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, but polls predict that the Republican opposition will regain power in both. The Republicans only need to add 5 deputies in the lower house and just 1 senator to get a majority.
The weighted average of polls from the FiveThirtyEight site gives them an 84% chance of winning the lower house and a 55% chance of winning the upper house.
For now, the vote count was progressing in a good part of the country, but definitive results were not expected tonight, since the time lag and the close elections in some key states delayed the process.
All the spotlights are on a handful of states with a very close election, whose definition could tip the Senate in favor of the Republicans: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Attentive to what happened in the last presidential elections, which took four days to declare that Biden had won Trump, experts, including White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre, agree that it may take up to “several days” see the final results.
Some data released last night reinforced the idea of an opposition advance because voters were very concerned about the progress of the economy, an issue with which Republicans blamed Biden during the campaign.
A CNN exit poll noted that 32% of voters said that inflation was the most important issue in the elections, while 27% indicated that abortion was a decisive issue when voting.
It is the first election after the Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn the Roe vs. Wade ruling, which had guaranteed abortion rights at the federal level since 1973. This decision mobilized the Democratic base that fears greater restrictions on this right. But the ultraconservatives also seek to expand the ban to all states.
The concern about inflation – today it is 8.2% per year – shakes the entire country, since the price index reached a record not seen in 40 years. 75% of those surveyed said the US economys things were not going well, while 46% said their financial situation compared to a year ago was worse and only 18% said it was better.
61% assured that the price of fuel –although now it has dropped, it has exceeded 5 dollars per gallon– had been a problem for the family economy.
A calm day
The vote went smoothly and without major incidents., despite the climate of tension in which it lives and the threats to candidates and electoral authorities. Some incidents were recorded in some districts such as Maricopa (Arizona), where there were problems with the voting machines in some centers.
There were also complaints in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, but initially they were common issues in general elections.
The Democrats insisted that in this election democracy was at stake. They denounce that the majority of the Republican candidates who competed for the House of Representatives, the Senate and relevant positions in their states -291 in total- have denied or questioned or denied the 2020 result, according to an analysis of The Washington Post.
A good part of them will win and take positions that will be decisive for any electoral definition in the 2024 presidential elections, warn the Democrats.
Republicans were excited last night about achieving a “red wave” that would sweep the entire country and gain control of both chambers, while Donald Trump sought to jump on the winning bandwagon and announce his possible candidacy for 2024. On Monday he said he would make a “very important announcement” next Tuesday.
But Trump has emerged a competitor for the primaries: Conservative Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Won His Re-election Widely Tonightwhich is placed in the race for 2024.
In the White House, meanwhile, they sought to endure a “dignified” defeat. They had little hope of retaining the lower house, but there was some hope of not losing the Senate. They tried to detach Biden from the results by saying that they had not been a punishment for his agenda.
The former White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, recalled in a tweet, before the polls closed, that Bill Clinton had lost 54 seats in 1994 and Barack Obama 63 in 2010 and that they had later been re-elected. But – it should be clarified – at that time there was no inflation of 8.2% per year.
Biden, close to turning 80, he has said that he was seeking to compete for a second governmentso his duel with Trump could be reissued in 2024.
But we will have to see what the second half of his term would be like if he is a “lame duck”, a president who governs with Congress against him. The results will undoubtedly have an impact on his policies, after two ambitious years of a progressive agenda, and will force him to reorder his priorities.
In his first two years, Biden got laws passed to deal with the pandemic, rebuild infrastructure, tackle climate change and elevate the nation’s competitiveness above China.
If Republicans win control of Congress, fights will break out over government funding and spending, support for Ukraine, and Republicans will seek to change many of the laws passed.
Biden will also have to prepare for an avalanche of investigations and even possible impeachments on issues such as the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the handling of the pandemic. His ambitions for a second term could be complicated.
PB