If all goes well, Europe should reach its CO2 emissions reduction target in 2030 (–55% compared to 1990), provided it accelerates a little, but the carbon neutrality planned for 2050, however, seems much more complicated to imagine. tool.
This is the main conclusion of the new decarbonisation scenario for Europe, produced by Engie and published on Tuesday 12 November. The group led its teams to work on the topic, examining both what has already been done, what remains to be done, and the technologies to achieve it, all on the basis of growth hypotheses yet to be verified.
Many technologies are not ready
A difficult exercise. “Eighteen months ago we had already outlined a first scenario, which we have chosen to revisit in light of new elements, such as electricity demand which is struggling to recover and delays in renewable hydrogen”, explains Claire Waysand, deputy general manager of Engie.
To justify its warning about the goal of reaching zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the energy company recalls this “70% of the necessary technologies and associated uses, such as the decarbonization of shipping and aviation or heavy industry, have not yet been truly tested on an industrial scale”. This especially applies to everything related to the capture and storage of CO2 as well as the production of synthetic fuels.
Indeed, it is difficult to electrify everything by 2050, even if at the same time gas demand is expected to decrease by 45%, falling below 2,500 TWh in Europe (less than 300 TWh in France). The residual gas demand will be replaced by “carbon-free molecules”be it biomethane, green hydrogen or e-fuels.
Fear of massive deindustrialization
But there is still a lack of economic models and regulatory frameworks yet to be built, note the Engie experts. “Europe must stay the course so that decarbonisation can become a competitive advantage by giving visibility to energy prices”, says Catherine MacGregor, CEO of Engie.
However, it warns against the dangers of excessive regulation, setting new targets that would be unattainable, while “the trajectories are already sufficiently ambitious”, underlines. Otherwise, “there is a risk that companies will leave Europe because their electrification is too expensive or because they cannot decarbonise quickly enough,” remembers the head of Engie.
In his report published in September, Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank (ECB), recalled that energy costs on average two or three times less in the United States than in Europe. For gas alone the differential is even one to five.
The challenge of integrating renewables
To achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, Europe will also have to integrate more and more renewable energy: +45 GW per year. A technical challenge that involves multiplying by 4.5 l “electrical flexibility capacity” by the middle of the century. Due to the mostly intermittent means of production, it will be necessary to find or store enough electricity to meet demand.
The investments necessary for decarbonisation in Europe will be of the order of 1.8% of European GDP between 2025 and 2030, then 1.6% of GDP between 2031 and 2040 and 1% of GDP between 2041 and 2050, notes the Engie scenario. “These are orders of magnitude that we already find in various reports and on which there is consensus,” estimates Nicolas Lefevre-Marton, strategic director of the group.
According to him, these enormous quantities should however be partially offset by savings made in the consumption of fossil fuels, imports of which are expected to decrease by 65% in the next twenty-five years.
What are the primary challenges that Europe faces in achieving its carbon neutrality target by 2050?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Claire Waysand, Deputy General Manager of Engie
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Claire! Thank you for joining us today. Your recent report on Europe’s decarbonization scenario has generated quite a buzz. To start, can you summarize the key conclusion regarding Europe’s CO2 emissions targets for 2030 and 2050?
Claire Waysand: Thank you for having me! The main takeaway from our report is that while Europe is likely to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target of a 55% cut by 2030—provided we accelerate our efforts—the path to carbon neutrality by 2050 is much more complex and problematic.
Time.news Editor: That’s certainly a significant distinction. What factors are making the 2050 target feel more daunting?
Claire Waysand: One of the biggest challenges is that approximately 70% of the required technologies for achieving zero carbon emissions are still in the testing phase and have not been implemented at scale. This includes key areas such as decarbonizing shipping and aviation, as well as heavy industry. Technologies like carbon capture and storage and synthetic fuel production specifically have yet to be fully developed and deployed.
Time.news Editor: It sounds like there’s a substantial gap between ambition and readiness. Could you elaborate on the technological hurdles that lie ahead?
Claire Waysand: Certainly! To reach our goals, we need robust solutions for electrification and a transition to carbon-free energy sources. However, we’re seeing slower-than-expected recovery in electricity demand and delays in the rollout of renewable hydrogen technologies. Moreover, transitioning away from traditional gas sources necessitates developing alternatives like biomethane and green hydrogen, which require significant investments and time.
Time.news Editor: Speaking of transition, you mentioned economic models and regulatory frameworks. Why are these aspects so critical to the success of the decarbonization strategy?
Claire Waysand: Economic models inform how we can incentivize and scale these technologies effectively. Without a clear regulatory framework, businesses may hesitate to invest in the necessary infrastructure. We want to enable decarbonization to be viewed as a competitive advantage rather than just a cost burden. We also emphasized the need for stability in energy pricing as a key factor in maintaining industrial competitiveness.
Time.news Editor: There’s clearly a balancing act at play. How do you feel Europe can avoid excessive regulation that could hinder progress?
Claire Waysand: It’s essential to establish attainable and realistic targets. The trajectories suggested in our report are already quite ambitious. If regulations become overly burdensome or set goals that are fundamentally unattainable, we risk stalling progress and possibly experiencing deindustrialization. We must create a supportive environment that encourages innovation and investment rather than constraining it.
Time.news Editor: That’s a crucial point. As we wrap up, what message would you like to convey about the role of collaboration in this transition?
Claire Waysand: Collaboration is absolutely vital. Achieving carbon neutrality requires coordinated efforts among governments, private sector players, and civil society. By sharing knowledge, investing in R&D, and aligning our objectives, we can construct the roadmap necessary for a successful transition and ensure that it works for everyone. It’s a huge challenge, but with the right partnerships and direction, we can make it happen.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Claire. Your insights are invaluable as we navigate these complex topics. We appreciate your time and commitment to fostering a sustainable future for Europe.
Claire Waysand: Thank you! I’m glad to share these perspectives, and I look forward to seeing progress in the years to come.