The two large centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin, the most left-wing nationalist party, are almost tied in this Friday’s Irish elections, according to the closing exit polls of the constituencies. Under this scenario, the two center-right parties are expected to once again form a new coalition with the support of some smaller groups.
Sinn Féin, the most left-wing nationalist party, could even come first in terms of vote percentage, which is unexpected given the various internal scandals that have hit mary Lou McDonald’s leadership in recent weeks. In the 2020 election, Sinn Féin won in number of votes for the first time (although not in number of seats and did not have a sufficient parliamentary majority to govern). Though, the exit poll indicates that it will not be the party with the most seats due to the distribution of its votes according to the local electoral system in which voters rank candidates according to preferences.
Fianna Fáil is the longest-ruling nationalist party as Irish independence and, on this estimate of results, is expected to remain in power after coalition negotiations.
Long exam
The final result of the election is not expected until Sunday evening or Monday morning, given the complexity of the Irish voting system which lengthens the counting, which will only begin on Saturday morning.
Irish people vote in every district with the so-called “single transferable vote”. This means that the voter chooses candidates in order of preference in constituencies where three to five deputies are elected. To win a seat, a candidate must meet a threshold that varies according to a formula in each district. The counting takes place in several stages: first the main preferences are counted and, if a candidate exceeds the threshold, the rest of the votes are redistributed based on the other preferences indicated by the voter. If no candidate reaches the threshold, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and his votes are transferred to the others. This process is repeated until all seats are assigned with the idea of minimizing the “waste” of votes. But with so many rounds,it will take several days to know the final result of the elections. Furthermore, this year, up to twenty candidates presented themselves in each constituency, due to the multiplication of so-called independent parties on the right and left (including the extremes).
The coalition
With weeks of negotiations remaining, the most likely coalition is that of the large center-right parties, with some nuances. “Whether they will have the support of the Greens or not is different. There could be different, let’s say external, support from a smaller party that comes here or it might very well be a group of independents,” Michele Crepaz, a political scientist at Queen’s University in Belfast, Northern Ireland, explains to elDiario.es. a database comprehensive on the island’s public policies. “They will have to be moderate independents. “We are not talking about those who are more at the extreme end of the political spectrum.”
According to the exit poll, those who achieved the best results were the Green Party, the Labor Party and the Social Democrats. All three are possible government partners of the two major center-right parties.
Ireland already has several parties that can be described as far-right due to their immigration policy and their inspiration – even in direct slogans – from Donald Trump, but none have consolidated around one leader.
Liz Carolan, a journalist specializing in politics and technology, explains to elDiario.es that some of these far-right candidates began their careers as “influencers” therefore “their campaigns are an extension of their existing online presence”,often based on videos of clashes with politicians or relating to migrants.
Rich country and Trump risk
Ireland is today one of the richest countries in Europe, among other things thanks to the presence of multinationals from the United States and other places who have settled there due to the language and lower taxes.
But the most hotly debated challenge among the major parties is how to now manage the risk that some of that business is in jeopardy if the new Trump management imposes further barriers to trade.
Elections in ireland: the eternal centre-right, the Sinn Féin scandals and 40 seconds at the village supermarket
In a country of just over five million inhabitants, there are almost 1,000 US companies that employ almost 400,000 people in Ireland and leave around 41 billion euros every year, according to data from the Chamber of Commerce. Political scientist Crepaz now underlines the message of Irish politicians: “If Trump closes the door on trade, then we have a problem and we must take it into account.”
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How does the single transferable vote system impact the representation of parties in the Irish elections?
Time.news Interview: Coalitions and Countbacks in the Irish Elections
Interviewer (Time.news editor): Welcome,everyone! Today,we have the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Anna O’Reilly, a political analyst who specializes in Irish politics. With the recent elections causing quite a stir,particularly with the close competition among the major parties,letS dive right in. Dr. O’Reilly, thank you for joining us!
Dr. Anna O’Reilly: Thank you for having me! It’s an exciting time in Irish politics.
Editor: Indeed, it is! The exit polls show an incredibly tight race between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and sinn Féin. How do you interpret these results?
Dr. O’Reilly: Well, the closeness of the race is indicative of a notable shift in the political landscape. Sinn Féin, as the most left-wing nationalist party, is really capitalizing on a wave of support.It’s interesting that despite internal scandals under Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership, they are projected to emerge with a substantial percentage of the vote.
Editor: That is quite unexpected, especially considering they didn’t secure enough seats in the previous election.what do you think has contributed to their rise, despite the controversies?
Dr. O’Reilly: Several factors are at play. Sinn Féin has effectively positioned itself as a voice for change, particularly on social issues and economic equality. The discontent with the established parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, has allowed Sinn Féin to attract voters who are seeking an alternative. the scandals certainly posed challenges, but they may have also galvanized support among their base who resonate with their policies.
Editor: Speaking of the established parties, Fianna Fáil is known for its long history in Irish politics. Do you think they will maintain power after the coalition negotiations?
Dr. O’Reilly: The current exit poll trends suggest that they,alongside Fine Gael,might form another coalition. Fianna Fáil’s past relevance and their ability to negotiate from a position of strength can help them secure a role in government. They have substantial experience in coalition-building, which may play to their advantage during these negotiations.
Editor: The complexity of the Irish voting system adds another layer to this election outcome. Could you explain how the “single transferable vote” system influences these results?
dr. O’Reilly: Sure! Essentially, voters rank candidates in order of preference, and this multi-stage counting process can lead to some surprises. If a candidate surpasses a threshold, the excess votes get redistributed to other candidates based on voter preferences. If no one meets the threshold initially, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed as well. This method helps to ensure a broader representation but also can mean that a party with many first-choice votes might not end up with the most seats, as we see potentially with Sinn Féin.
Editor: So, it creates a very dynamic and sometimes unpredictable political landscape. What can we anticipate moving forward with the final results expected early next week?
Dr. O’Reilly: The coalition talks will be crucial. Each party will be jockeying for positions that align with their agendas, and how they negotiate will speak volumes about their future strategies. We will also monitor how Sinn Féin leverages its vote strength, especially if they secure the highest percentage of votes but not necessarily the most seats.The public’s expectation for change will play a pivotal role in these negotiations.
Editor: It sounds like we’re in for quite a political rollercoaster in the coming days.Thank you for sharing your insights, Dr. O’Reilly. we’ll be keeping a close eye on the developments as the election results unfold.
Dr. O’Reilly: Thank you for having me! It will certainly be an interesting few days ahead!
Editor: And to our viewers, stay tuned to Time.news for the latest updates and analysis on the Irish elections!