In Russia, the number of cases of infection with the Omicron strain and the overall incidence of coronavirus are growing. On January 18, more than 31,000 cases were detected, which is two times higher than in early January. However, this doesn’t seem to cause too much concern so far. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin is not considering imposing a nationwide lockdown or strict quarantine measures. On a wave of restrained optimism, the government even decided to reduce the quarantine period for those who fell ill to seven days. According to Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, this time the main burden will fall on the outpatient healthcare sector.
By Tuesday, the Omicron strain of coronavirus accounted for 40% of infections in Russia. Moreover, the new version dominates in Moscow, the Moscow region and St. Petersburg. This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova at a meeting of the coordinating council for the fight against infection. She clarified that the number of cases of the omicron strain detected in Russia reached 1,682 in 42 regions (as early as Friday, Rospotrebnadzor spoke of 698 in 13 regions). At the same time, Ms. Golikova stressed, the government understands that there are “significantly more” infected with “omicron”, since not all samples are sequenced. Earlier, Rospotrebnadzor confirmed to Kommersant that only 5–10% of those infected in each region are analyzing biosamples. In addition, according to Tatyana Golikova, over the past six months, 70% of new cases have not traveled outside of Russia – “this already indicates that Omicron is actively developing within the country.”
The spread of a strain more contagious than its predecessors led to an increase in the incidence after the New Year holidays in 67 regions.
On Tuesday, the federal operational headquarters reported 31,252 cases of COVID-19 in the country per day, which is almost twice as many as two weeks ago.
Tatyana Golikova also drew attention to the increase in the incidence of the new strain among children and the greater ability of Omicron to bypass immune barriers.
She clarified that of the patients whose samples were sequenced, 27.9% were fully vaccinated. During the spread of the Delta strain, according to official data, only 6% of those vaccinated were infected.
The number of patients in hospitals, the vice-premier noted, even decreased by 4.6%. About 500 thousand patients are under medical supervision. In total, 158.6 thousand beds are deployed in Russia, of which 69% are occupied. At the end of October, at the height of the fourth wave of the coronavirus, Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko reported that the number of beds in medical institutions was “forced” to be increased to 292,000, leaving only 12% free. The number of simultaneously ill with coronavirus then reached 1 million people. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, now coronavirus causes ARVI in 54.5% of cases, community-acquired pneumonia in 4.1%, and in 41.1% of cases the disease is asymptomatic. The government expects that “the vector of change in the virus will be directed towards reducing its pathogenicity and increasing contagiousness.”
This is probably why the quarantine period for COVID-19 patients has been reduced from 14 to 7 days.
According to Tatyana Golikova, due to the new properties of the coronavirus, it is faster to infect (the incubation period, according to the latest data, is most often three to six days), but it is easier to pass, the main burden of the increase in the incidence will fall on the outpatient network.
Moscow has already “significantly” increased the number of doctors on duty in polyclinics. The Moscow Department of Health offers Muscovites with acute respiratory viral infections and a temperature not higher than 38 degrees to independently seek medical assistance at a polyclinic and come to an appointment with the doctor on duty without making an appointment and calling 122. At the same time, back in July 2021, during the third outbreak caused by Delta -strain, any symptoms of SARS in Muscovites were considered coronavirus until a rapid test for the presence of an antigen and a PCR test show the opposite. Such citizens had to sign an agreement to comply with the isolation regime “until the PCR result is received, but within at least three days.”
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that, despite an almost two-fold increase in the incidence in two weeks, in most cases the disease caused by the Omicron strain proceeds in a milder form and the number of hospitalizations remains relatively small: 750–800 per day versus 1.5 thousand in the summer with an average incidence of 5 thousand people per day. More than 8,000 new patients were identified in Moscow on Tuesday.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin also noted that the increase in the incidence has not yet led to a sharp increase in the number of hospitalized in the country, with the exception of certain regions. “However, it is not entirely clear how quickly the new strain will spread. We must be ready for any development of events,” the head of the Cabinet warned.
On the whole, being cautiously optimistic, this time the members of the coordinating council made practically no serious restrictive decisions.
Mikhail Mishustin said that the government, on behalf of the president, has developed a plan of additional measures that should help prepare the healthcare system. According to him, most of the measures relate to the work of outpatient care facilities, since they will have the most serious burden. In particular, additional funds will be allocated for the purchase of medicines and support for the CHI system. In addition, Mr. Mishustin announced the need to increase testing for COVID-19 and strengthen control over compliance with sanitary requirements in crowded places.
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Kremlin is not considering the possibility of introducing a nationwide lockdown or strict quarantine measures.
Protection measures will remain the same in the capital: Sergei Sobyanin signed a decree extending the period (from February 25 to April 1) of the requirements for employers to transfer at least 30% of employees to remote mode, and for citizens over 60 years old and people with chronic diseases to keep home mode.
“Obviously, an outbreak is starting in Russia, which, in terms of the number of infected people, can be very large-scale. But it is not yet clear whether we will have much more deaths compared to what we have now or during the autumn wave, ”comments Konstantin Severinov, a molecular biologist, professor at Rutgers University and Skoltech. According to him, the examples of England, France, the United States show that a sharp increase in the number of infected people has not led to a proportional change in the level of deaths. On the other hand, continues Mr. Severinov, the “seeming goodness” of the “omicron” may be due to the fact that in those countries where the outbreak has already occurred, there is a large immune layer. “In South Africa, where omicron has begun to spread, it would seem that fewer people are vaccinated than ours, but they have a young population, and young people tolerate the infection more easily. Our population is elderly and, in general, not very healthy. In addition, the number of those vaccinated in our country is much less, especially in risk groups, than in countries where there was no collapse due to the spread of a new strain, ”the expert argues. It should be noted that according to the latest data, the level of herd immunity in the country has reached 63.9%.
According to the infectious disease specialist, head physician of the Leader-Medicine clinic Yevgeny Timakov, the fifth wave, even though it will bring a significantly larger number of cases, will be shorter than the previous ones.
The predicted number of hospitalizations also seems to be comparable to the highs of previous outbreaks (about 13 thousand people). It is encouraging, he continues, that the large territories of Russia allow the epidemic to be stretched over time. Thus, the regions have the opportunity to prepare and partially adopt the proven Moscow strategy. Konstantin Severinov is less optimistic: “If 100,000 people a day start getting infected in Russia, then there could be more deaths than last fall. Therefore, it is completely irresponsible to consider Omicron as a replacement for a safe and effective vaccine.”
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