RomeOver three and a half million voters will be called to the polls on Sunday and Monday to choose the new president of the Emilia-Romagna region, in central Italy, after the resignation of Stefano Bonaccini – who was at the helm of the regional administration for a decade – after having been elected to the European Parliament by the Progressive Democratic Party. There is also voting in Umbria, where the current centre-right governor is aiming for re-election. But all eyes are on Emilia-Romagna, the last one red bastion of Italy, where the left has governed for 50 years.
The Social Democrats aim to remain in power with the candidacy of 39-year-old Michele de Pascale, considered in all polls the favorite over the conservative candidate Elena Ugolini, at the head of a civic list supported by the centre-right coalition formed by the Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia. The polls are so devastating that the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, chose last week to cancel her participation in the closing of the electoral campaign in Bologna. Even if the victory is almost a given, the unknown is whether the progressives will be able to mobilize their electorate or whether abstention will once again be the protagonist.
Despite emerging victorious, De Pascale has spent the last few months touring the region from one end to the other to instil a message of discontinuity with the past. However, the atmosphere is not that of celebrations. In recent months, Emilia-Romagna has had to deal with the consequences of two devastating floods due to torrential rains – one in May 2023 and another in October 2024 -, with the destruction of hundreds of homes, businesses, cultivated fields… and delays in receiving the promised aid.
“The floods of recent months have added anger to an already difficult social context after the pandemic,” acknowledged De Pascale. The progressive candidate, mayor of Ravenna since 2016 and president of the province, one of the territories affected by these disasters, harshly attacked the Meloni government, which he accuses of having abandoned the region and its inhabitants. For her part, conservative candidate Elena Ugolini denounces that the ultimate responsibility for the disaster falls on the previous left-wing administration.
Election thermometer
De Pascale is the big bet of PD leader Elly Schlein, who hopes that a good result at the polls will give the necessary impetus to the so-called “wide field”, the progressive experiment with which the Social Democrats aspire to unite their formation with the Movement Five Star and the other left-wing parties will have to face the center-right coalition that has governed the country for two years. The results will be a good electoral gauge for the next election dates.
Emilia-Romagna, where the center-left has governed since 1970, is the Italian region with the lowest unemployment rate and the second richest in the country after Lombardy. However, this has not stopped the right from making progress in recent years. In fact, in the 2020 elections, Matteo Salvini’s League was the second party with over 40% of the votes.
The spirits are warmed. A week before the opening of the polls, a demonstration authorized by the neo-fascist party Casa Pound in front of the Bologna station, scene of the bloodiest terrorist attack in Italian history, and another protest organized by anti-fascist groups which resulted in a pitched clash with several policemen injured officers.
The riots provoked the indignation of the mayor, the progressive Matteo Lepore, who accused the central government of having sent ”300 black shirts” - as fascists are called in Italy – to Bologna instead of sending the promised funds for reconstruction after the floods. An accusation to which the prime minister responded by showing solidarity with the police and accusing the left of victimhood.
Meloni canceled her visit to Bologna, scheduled for the following day, and was seen little in the region during the election campaign. He did it, however, in Umbria, where he closed the campaign with the leaders of the parties that form the right-wing coalition, Matteo Salvini and Antonio Tajani. In this small region where around 700 thousand voters are called to the polls, the conservatives have a better chance of getting Elena Tesei re-elected. The current president faces Stefania Proietti, mayor of the city of Assisi and president of the province of Perugia, who has the support of the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement and the Italia Viva party of former prime minister Matteo Renzi.
How might the outcome of the Emilia-Romagna elections influence national politics in Italy?
Interview: The Political Landscape of Emilia-Romagna
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome to our readers. Today, we’re diving deep into the upcoming elections in Emilia-Romagna with an expert in Italian politics, Dr. Laura Rossi. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Rossi.
Dr. Laura Rossi (DLR): Thank you for having me. It’s an exciting time for Italian politics, especially in Emilia-Romagna.
TNE: Over three and a half million voters will head to the polls soon. What do you think are the key factors influencing this election, particularly in Emilia-Romagna?
DLR: There are several critical factors at play. Firstly, the resignation of long-standing president Stefano Bonaccini adds a layer of uncertainty. His departure after a decade of leadership opens the door for new dynamics and a potential shift in voter sentiment.
TNE: It’s fascinating to see Michele de Pascale as the favored candidate for the left. What do you believe is contributing to his current popularity, especially against conservative candidate Elena Ugolini?
DLR: De Pascale’s popularity can be attributed to several factors. He is seen as a fresh face, and despite the turmoil from recent floods and the lingering impact of the pandemic, he has toured the region extensively, advocating for a message of hope and renewal. His ability to connect with the community, especially in flood-affected areas, has resonated with many voters.
TNE: Speaking of the floods, how much do you think the recent natural disasters have impacted the political landscape?
DLR: The floods have undoubtedly heightened voter emotions and concerns. De Pascale is capitalizing on the sentiment that the current national government, led by Giorgia Meloni, has failed to provide adequate support during these crises. On the other hand, Ugolini is attempting to shift the narrative by blaming the previous administration. It’s a complex blame game that illustrates deeper social issues in the region.
TNE: The political narrative seems to be quite polarized. How does this affect voter turnout?
DLR: That’s a crucial question. The left’s long-standing dominance in Emilia-Romagna could be tested by voter abstention. While de Pascale is favored to win, the pressing question is whether he can mobilize the progressive electorate effectively. A lack of enthusiasm could lead to lower turnout, which may ultimately affect the outcome.
TNE: Speaking of political mobilization, what are the implications of this election for the broader national landscape in Italy?
DLR: This election serves as a litmus test for the left’s efficacy. If de Pascale wins, it could reinvigorate the ”wide field” strategy proposed by Elly Schlein, which aims to unify progressive forces against the entrenched center-right coalition. A strong showing in Emilia-Romagna may ignite momentum for upcoming national elections.
TNE: Given that Emilia-Romagna has the lowest unemployment rate and is the second richest region, how has economic stability played a role in the political discourse?
DLR: Economic stability is a double-edged sword. While the region’s affluence can lend credibility to the socialist model, the right is effectively framing issues of resilience and responsiveness amid natural disasters. Voters may question the effectiveness of the regional government amidst crises, even with a strong economic background.
TNE: So, as we approach the elections, what’s your prediction for the outcome?
DLR: It’s complicated. While the polls suggest de Pascale is the favorite, the potential for surprises cannot be dismissed. Voter sentiment is fluid, especially in the wake of the recent floods. Whether the progressives can capitalize on their historical advantages will be key.
TNE: Thank you for your insights, Dr. Rossi. It’s clear that the elections in Emilia-Romagna will not only determine the future leadership of the region but may also significantly impact the trajectory of Italian politics moving forward.
DLR: Absolutely. The next few days will be crucial, and I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.
TNE: Thank you for joining us today, and thank you to our audience for tuning in. Don’t forget to stay updated for the latest developments in the Emilia-Romagna elections!