2024-11-19 12:40:00
Some regions of the world are even more exposed to climate change than others and can expect an even more worrying future. The Mediterranean basin is in this case: it is warming 20% faster than the rest of the world. This was recalled on Monday 18 November, on the occasion of COP29, in Azerbaijan, by Piero Lionello, of the University of Salento, and Mohamed Abdel Monem, consultant for climate and rural development. At the invitation of the Union for the Mediterranean (which brings together the European Union and sixteen countries around the Mediterranean), they presented two reports for which they coordinated the contributions of fifty-five scientists from seventeen countries, within the framework of the MedECC (Euro- Mediterranean Expert Network Climate and Environmental Scientists Network).
One describes the impacts of climate change in this region of over 540 million inhabitants, the other looks at the water-energy–food-ecosystems nexus, in other words at the cascading implications that link these sectors. “All the consequences of climate change are clearly visible: warming, less fresh water available… And our problems are smaller than those that await us if we continue to emit so many greenhouse gases”alert Piero Lionello.
While the images of the conurbation of Valencia, Spain, devastated by the apocalyptic rains of late October, are in everyone’s memory, experts underline that the concentration of populations on its coasts is growing faster than inland. A third resides in the immediate vicinity of the coasts. Certainly the number of inhabitants could decrease in the North, but a strong increase is expected in the Middle East and in the Maghreb countries. Up to 20 million people could therefore be forced to move permanently by 2100, the authors estimate.
In question: the increase in extreme events (droughts and torrential rains), the rise in sea levels and, environmental degradation. The drainage of more than 160 coastal waterways and the disappearance of approximately half of coastal wetlands during the 20th century directly affect the state of coastal areas, as these ecosystems play a sponge and sediment supply role.
General deterioration
In the region, the frequency and intensity of centennial extreme events (which have a 1 in 100 chance of occurring each year) could increase by 10% to 30% by the mid-21st century if we reduced our greenhouse gas emissions. gas to remain below 1.5°C of heating. Significant sites and infrastructure are under threat. Three large airports are among the twenty most exposed to coastal flooding risk in the world: Corfu, Greece, and Pisa and Venice, Italy.
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How can Mediterranean countries collaborate effectively to address the climate change challenges impacting migration and resource availability?
Time.news Interview: Understanding Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean
Editor (John): Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We have the pleasure of speaking with Dr. Piero Lionello, an expert in climate science from the University of Salento. Dr. Lionello, your recent presentation at COP29 shed light on the alarming rate at which the Mediterranean basin is warming. Can you share why the Mediterranean is seeing such drastic changes compared to other regions?
Dr. Piero Lionello: Good morning, John. Yes, the Mediterranean region is warming approximately 20% faster than the global average, which is attributed to a combination of geographical factors and climate dynamics. Proximity to land and water bodies creates a unique climate system that is particularly vulnerable to climate change.
John: That’s concerning. You mentioned that the reports you co-presented at COP29 included input from 55 scientists across 17 countries. What were some of the key findings that stood out to you?
Dr. Lionello: One of the most striking findings is the clear correlation between climate change impacts and the availability of fresh water in the region. We’re already observing reduced freshwater resources, which jeopardizes food security and leads to conflicts over water and agricultural resources. This interconnection between water, energy, food, and ecosystems is critical.
John: It sounds like the cascading impacts could have grave consequences. With the population on the Mediterranean coasts increasing, how do you see this affecting future migration patterns?
Dr. Lionello: The projections are indeed alarming. By 2100, we estimate that up to 20 million people could be forced to migrate due to climate-related factors. The concentration of populations near the coast will only make these issues worse, as extreme weather events like those we saw in Valencia lead to significant displacement and livelihoods being disrupted.
John: Speaking of the events in Valencia, those apocalyptic rains were a wake-up call. What kind of preparedness and adaptation strategies should be considered to mitigate such disasters in the future?
Dr. Lionello: Communities need to integrate climate resilience into urban planning. This includes enhancing infrastructure to manage heavy rainfall, improving drainage systems, and developing early warning systems for extreme weather. Moreover, public awareness and education on climate change impacts are crucial to encourage proactive measures at both local and regional levels.
John: The link between climate change and human mobility is becoming clearer. What role do you think international cooperation, like the Union for the Mediterranean, plays in addressing these challenges?
Dr. Lionello: International cooperation is absolutely vital. The Mediterranean is a shared resource, and climate change does not recognize borders. Collaborative efforts can facilitate knowledge sharing, fund adaptation initiatives, and enact policies that benefit all nations involved, ensuring a unified approach to combatting the impacts of climate change.
John: Thank you for those insights, Dr. Lionello. As we face these unprecedented challenges, it’s crucial to continue the dialogue on climate action and resilience. Is there anything else you’d like to add before we conclude?
Dr. Lionello: Yes, I’d like to emphasize the importance of individual action alongside institutional efforts. Each of us can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, whether by altering our consumption habits, advocating for sustainable practices, or participating in community efforts. Collective action can indeed make a difference.
John: Sound advice, Dr. Lionello. Thank you for joining us today and sharing your expertise. We look forward to seeing your ongoing work in addressing these critical issues.
Dr. Lionello: Thank you, John. It was a pleasure.