By Fabio bosco
On 27 November, a coalition of Syrian rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and with the participation of sectors of the Jeish al-Wattani (National Army, supported by the Turkish regime) launched a major offensive on the province of Aleppo, conquering vast rural areas, and also a large part of the city of Aleppo, the second most significant city in Syria, as well as advancing towards hama after taking the highway that connects Aleppo with the said city and with Damascus, cutting the lines vital supply lines for Syrian regime forces and their allies.
Syrian regime forces and foreign militias supported by the Iranian regime where surprised and suffered several setbacks. The Syrian regime used Syrian and Russian air forces to fearful bomb the rebel province of Idlib and the city of Aleppo, but failed to contain the rebel offensive.
The Syrian population in Idlib and Deraa (in the south of the country, cradle of the 2011 revolution) celebrated the progress of the offensive. Moreover, clashes occurred between the Druze community and Syrian regime forces in Suweida, in the south of the country. In a separate dispute from the fight against the Syrian regime, there were clashes in Deir Zour, in the east of the country, over control of the left bank of the Euphrates River between US-backed Kurdish SDF forces and Iranian militias and Russians who support the regime Syrian regime.1
The rebels’ offensive is based, first of all, on the hatred that the Syrian population feels towards the Assad dictatorship and its Iranian and Russian allies. This hatred is based not only on the massacres committed against the population to bloodily suffocate the Syrian revolution that began in March 2011,but also on the situation of poverty and bombings faced by approximately four million Syrian refugees living in the rebel province of Idlib. This explains the participation of hundreds of young people eager to defeat the Syrian regime forces and expel foreign militias supported by the Iranian regime.
Other factors that also explain the success of the offensive
The Syrian regime subjects the Syrian population to poverty, lack of public services and humiliating daily siege and looting imposed by the repressive services (“mukhabarat”, in Arabic) and regime-linked militias, popularly known as “shabiha” .” (“ghost”) in allusion to the vehicles used by these militiamen in the years 1970-1980).
Moreover, Syria is a country occupied by six foreign military forces.
1.the militias supported by the Iranian regime (Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Lebanese Hezbollah, Quwat al-hashd al-Shaabi/Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq, etc.) and by Russia – which has two major military bases on the coast and others dispersed – control 60% of the territory together with the forces of the hated Syrian regime;
2. The United States maintains 900 military advisors who coordinate the mercenary companies (contractors), in alliance with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurdish PYD), which control approximately 27% of the territory in the north-west, where they are located oil and gas reserves, as well as productive lands;
3. Türkiye controls Afrin province and a border strip, and maintains a series of allied militias coordinated by the National Army militia (Jeish al-Wattani, in arabic);
4. israel has controlled a major part of the Golan Heights since 1967 and recently captured the rural areas of the city of Quneitra (without any reaction from the cowardly Syrian regime);
5. The Iraqi group Daesh is present on the border with Iraq.
For these reasons (repression, poverty and loss of national sovereignty), the Syrian regime is hated by the population and the Syrian military forces are completely dependent on militias linked to Iran and the Russian air Force to keep Assad in power. However, Russia has deployed aircraft and military forces to promote genocide in Ukraine, and also imported much of Iran’s production of Fathi missiles and Shaheed drones for this purpose. This weakens military support for the regime. Iranian militias are also weakened. several Hezbollah militias were deployed to Lebanon and replaced by less experienced pro-Iranian militias. Another problem is the air strikes by the State of Israel
The role of the Turkish regime
The Turkish regime has a number of interests in Syria. Chief among these is to create a cordon sanitaire separating the Kurdish areas in Türkiye and Syria.In the past, the Kurdish PKK relied on bases in Syria to operate in Kurdistan under Turkish occupation.
Erdogan is also interested in a solution for the approximately four million Syrian refugees who are in the country and are the target of xenophobic campaigns by far-right groups,which polarize national politics.
the Turkish regime has always been interested in expanding its area of political and economic influence, which is why it has tried to control the Syrian opposition forces, and now sponsors the coalition around the Home Army militia (Jeish al-Wattani ).erdogan recently changed course and sought an agreement with the Syrian regime, without success.
Certainly the Turkish regime facilitated the rebel offensive through sectors of the Jeish al-Wattani.But their objectives are different from those of the Syrian population, who are fighting for the end of the dictatorship and for the occupation of the country by foreign forces.
Therefore, the Turkish regime can reach an agreement with Putin and the Iranian regime to contain the offensive against the Syrian regime. Conversations are ongoing.2
Trump’s inauguration
Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 is a factor that accelerated the rebel forces’ decision to begin the offensive.
On the one hand, Trump promises to impose a ceasefire in Ukraine, handing over Ukrainian territory to Putin and providing relief to the Russian military and economy, which are severely strained by the war effort. This would allow Putin to redeploy forces in Syria to support Assad’s murderous regime.
On the other hand, Trump could decide to modify US support for the Kurdish SDF/PYD, which controls 27% of Syria’s territory, to hand over border strips to the Turkish government to create a cordon sanitaire and, to deport some Syrian refugees. A decision of this magnitude could satisfy Erdogan’s interests in removing Jeish al-Wattani from any military offensive against the Syrian regime and freezing the HTS-led coalition.
No trust in HTS!
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is one of the groups that played a negative role during the Syrian revolution, trying to change the nature of the democratic revolution into a sectarian civil war. This institution is accused of repressing the population and killing opponents,such as the famous radio host Raed Fares. One of his main sources of support came from Qatar.
In the last period, al-Joulani, the main leader of HTS, has tried to change the image of the organization. Not only did it break with Al Qaeda, but it also tried to present itself as the normal bourgeois force, ruling Idlib, taxing all trade and keeping its distance from the unpopular Syrian regime. The change in image does not imply a break with the Salafi sectors, which preach a sectarian theocratic dictatorship, but rather a softening of that image.
Certainly the offensive in Aleppo can also be explained by the need of the HTS to seek a way out of the popular discontent within Idlib.
A revolutionary choice for the fight against dictatorship
In any case, this offensive in Aleppo is in tune with the desire of the vast majority of the Syrian population to put an end to the dictatorship, foreign occupation and poverty to which they are subjected. But what is missing is a leading organization totally different from the HTS, a workers’, democratic and revolutionary organisation.
Activists committed to the ideals of the Arab revolutions (freedom, bread and social justice) must build a new political organization, which promotes democratic popular councils in liberated areas, where workers can decide the future of the struggle against dictatorship.During the Syrian revolution there were several democratic experiences of self-organization that need to be revived. We cannot except that Assad’s dictatorship will be replaced by another dictatorship of autocratic groups, be it HTS or any other. The fight for the democratic freedoms of Syrian workers goes hand in hand with the fight against Assad’s dictatorship.
Furthermore, there is a genocide taking place in Palestine. Today, Palestinians
can only count on the support of the working classes and youth in Arab countries and around the world. A new revolutionary organization must position itself for unconditional support for the Palestinian people, for the reconstruction of Al Yarmouk – destroyed by the Syrian regime – and for the recovery of all the Syrian territory occupied by the Zionist entity on the golan Heights, against the conciliatory position with Zionism, promoted by the Assad dynasty.
The kurdish question is another strategic issue for the new Syrian revolution.The Kurdish population represents approximately 10% of the Syrian population. The Kurds have always suffered the oppression of Assad’s dictatorship. At the beginning of the syrian revolution, prominent Kurdish leaders, such as Meshaal Temmo (killed in PYD-controlled territory), championed the unity of the fight against Assad. However, the leading forces of the Syrian revolution have never established a democratic commitment to defend the Kurdish population’s right to self-determination. This facilitated the actions of the Kurdish PYD party, whose strategy was a tacit alliance with Assad, withdrawing the Kurdish masses from the Syrian revolution, in exchange for some concessions from the dictatorship. This mistake must be avoided by inviting the Kurdish population to fight against the dictatorship and defending their right to self-determination, which has always been denied by the Syrian regime. At the same time, it is necessary to call on the PYD to break with the Syrian regime and US imperialism, join the fight against the Syrian dictatorship, and establish a non-aggression commitment between the rebel forces and the SDF, guaranteeing the autonomy of Rojava, rejecting any pressure from the Turkish regime. It is indeed also necessary to demand full democratic freedoms from the SDF within rojava, so that the Kurdish people can exercise their right to self-determination in freedom.
Translation: Natalia Estrada
How is Turkey’s involvement influencing the dynamics between various factions in Syria?
time.news Interview: Navigating the turmoil of the Syrian conflict
Editor: welcome to time.news. Today, we’re privileged to have Dr.Nadia Al-Mansur, an expert in Middle Eastern conflicts and political dynamics, joining us to discuss the recent escalation in the Syrian conflict. Thank you for being here, Dr. Al-Mansur.
Dr.Al-Mansur: It’s a pleasure to be here.Thank you for having me.
Editor: Let’s dive straight into the recent offensive launched by rebel groups in Syria, especially the role of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Can you explain what led to this notable surge in their activities?
Dr. Al-Mansur: Certainly. The offensive is largely fueled by the immense frustration and suffering of the Syrian populace under the Assad regime. As the revolution began in March 2011, many have faced brutal repression, economic hardship, and a devastating humanitarian crisis — particularly in areas like Idlib, where approximately four million refugees reside.The recent military actions are a culmination of this long-standing resentment towards the regime, exacerbated by external influences and internal pressures.
Editor: It truly seems that the humanitarian crisis plays a critical role in this conflict. How is the interplay between the Syrian regime’s actions and the foreign militias impacting the ground situation?
Dr. Al-Mansur: The Syrian regime, heavily reliant on foreign militias, primarily from Iran and Russia, has become increasingly vulnerable. The economic collapse, lack of basic services, and humiliation inflicted by these militia groups have fostered animosity from the local population. as Russian forces are stretched due to their ongoing involvement in Ukraine, the regime’s reliance on external support has weakened their position, allowing rebel groups to gain ground.
Editor: You mentioned foreign influences — Turkey’s involvement seems significant in this context. Can you speak about Turkey’s role and interests in the Syrian conflict?
Dr. Al-Mansur: Turkey indeed plays a complex role. President Erdogan seems keen on establishing a buffer zone to mitigate the Kurdish influence from both sides of the border. Additionally, the influx of Syrian refugees has become a contentious issue within Turkey, compelling Erdogan to seek a solution. However, it’s essential to note that while Turkey has facilitated some aspects of the rebel offensive, their ultimate objectives may diverge from those of the Syrian populace, who are primarily focused on ending the dictatorship.
editor: With Erdogan’s emerging overtures toward a potential agreement with the Syrian regime, what implications could this have on the ongoing conflict?
Dr. Al-Mansur: If Turkey succeeds in negotiating with both russia and Iran, it could lead to a concerted effort to contain the rebel advances. This is concerning for the Syrian rebels and the general population, as it may halt their progress toward achieving autonomy from Assad’s regime and foreign occupation. This scenario underscores the complex geopolitics at play in Syria, where various actors align their interests frequently enough at the expense of the Syrian peopel’s aspirations.
Editor: Shifting focus to the United States — Trump’s impending inauguration is presenting a new variable in this landscape. How might U.S. policy towards the region change under his governance?
Dr. Al-Mansur: Trump’s foreign policy could significantly reshape the dynamics in Syria. His inclination to negotiate with Putin over Ukraine may result in a reduction of U.S. support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, thereby enabling Turkey to further its influence and potentially destabilizing the current balance. This shift could lead to increased vulnerability for the Kurdish forces and embolden the Syrian regime.
Editor: Lastly, let’s talk about HTS. Despite its controversial history and past actions, it seems to have transformed its image recently. How should we interpret this shift?
Dr.Al-Mansur: HTS has indeed attempted to distance itself from its former affiliations and present itself as a viable governing force in Idlib. However, many remain skeptical of their intentions, given their history of suppressing dissent and inflicting violence on opponents. The challenge lies in reconciling their past with their current claims of legitimacy. Their ability to maintain local support amidst opposition from both the regime and other rebel factions will be crucial in the upcoming months.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Al-Mansur, for shedding light on these intricate issues within Syria. Your insights are invaluable as we navigate the ever-evolving landscape of this conflict.
Dr. Al-Mansur: Thank you for the opportunity to discuss these critical issues.The situation in syria continues to evolve, and it’s paramount we keep the conversation alive.
