2023-10-12 16:25:12
The Middle East accounts for more than a third of the world’s maritime oil traffic, so the conflict that broke out a few days ago in Israel will be a turning point and, inevitably, a rise in prices, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). which in its monthly report published this Thursday indicates that this will be the key on which the markets focus their attention in the immediate future.
Even so, the organization that brings together the main oil-consuming countries assures that the conflict has not affected crude oil flows for now, but warns that the international community “will continue to focus on these risks” since the first bombings meant an immediate increase of 4 dollars per barrel in the Brent futures market and that the uncertainty about what will happen is very high. In fact, until that moment the price of a barrel had fallen from the peak of 98 dollars that it marked in mid-September to 84 at the beginning of October due to a decrease in global demand due to the economic slowdown.
The agency revises slightly upwards its forecasts for world oil consumption for this year, up to 101.9 million barrels per day, 100,000 more than what was estimated last month and 2% more than last year’s consumption due almost in its entirely due to the increase in China, India and Brazil.
In Spain, the average price of a liter of diesel has put an end to the increases it has experienced since the beginning of summer and has registered its first decrease in fourteen weeks, a downward trend that gasoline experienced for the first time last week. also after three months. Specifically, diesel fell 0.3% this Thursday compared to a week ago, reaching 1.682 euros per liter, while gasoline fell 1.86%, to 1.719 euros, according to data from the Boletín Petrolero de the EU published this Thursday.
The price of both fuels continues above the levels prior to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but far from the records of a year ago, when in July 2022 both exceeded 2.1 euros per liter.
Doubts about whether to extend the aid
The slight relaxation that fuel prices are experiencing so far coincides with the internal debate that the Government is having regarding the extension of the aid in force to combat inflation, such as the subsidy to transporters for diesel. For now, the Executive continues to “monitor” the evolution of prices and are aware, according to sources from various departments linked to the economic area, that in the two months remaining until the end of the year the market can take many turns in the face of the high volatility that they show now, more conditioned by the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
These same sources insist that it will be necessary to analyze who will be affected by fuel or energy prices in order to maintain, withdraw or modify public aid programs. What almost seems crystal clear is that there will not be a million-dollar injection of money, like the one activated in 2022 with the bonus of up to 20 euro cents per liter refueled for the entire population, without distinction by group or income. Even more so after the insistence of organizations such as the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warning of the need to adjust this aid to meet public deficit objectives and remain more attentive than until now. Now to the fiscal path.
If oil closes the year in a range between 80 and 90 dollars per barrel, the Government will be relieved to a certain extent in the face of social or political pressure to implement generalized aid for fuel. That is the margin with which the Executive plays in its plans. For now, it is being fulfilled: despite the conflict in the Middle East, a barrel of Brent continues to move below $90.
oil company war
However, fuel will remain expensive in the coming months, although they will not reach records like those set last year, with peaks above two euros per liter. For this reason, some companies in the sector have reactivated their discount plans; programs that, in many cases, were activated in March 2022 when the war in Ukraine began.
In the case of Repsol, it announced this week that it is extending its discounts from October 16 to January 10, 2024 for customers who refuel at its service stations. It will be necessary, however, to be registered in their loyalty program (Waylet), with savings that can reach up to 40 euro cents per liter, depending on whether they have also contracted electricity, gas and solar solutions with Repsol. Its loyalty application already has seven million registered users, many of them registered as a result of the rise in crude oil last year and under the group’s promotions, such as those that were linked to the state bonus. The rest of the oil companies maintain, for now, their savings programs, both in Cepsa (up to 15 cents in Cepsa Gow under certain conditions), and BP and Galp, in addition to the independents.
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