2024-02-21 20:26:00
Military analysts are thinking about what targets the Russian army will now focus on after the fall of Avdijivka in Ukraine. One of them may be the city of Pokrovsk, the main logistical hub of the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk region.
Pokrovsk is located about 70 kilometers northwest of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. | Video: Reuters
Pokrovsk is located about 70 kilometers northwest of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. The city had a population of about 60,000 before the war and lies at the crossroads of several railways and roads, making it an important part of Ukrainian logistics. “Other targets of the invasion forces may include the cities of Selydov or Časiv Jar in the Donetsk region,” Elina Beketová from the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis told Newsweek.
According to her, it is likely that the Russians will focus on the settlements adjacent to the occupied Avdijivka in order to test the capabilities of the Ukrainians and possibly continue to advance through the Donetsk region. “There may be a significant battle at Časiv Jar, a town near Bachmut, which stands on a high ground,” thinks Beketová.
Retired US Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian confirms that Pokrovsk is indeed a major logistics hub, but it is far from Avdijivka. “Ukraine lost about 10 km of territory when it retreated from Avdijivka, a town that the Russians had largely surrounded. To reach Pokrovsk, they will have to advance five times further. That’s more territory than they have gained since March 2022,” Cancian claims .
Since February 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Pokrovsk has been the target of multiple missile strikes. Most recently, a missile from the S-300 anti-aircraft system killed 11 people there, including five children.
“They do not have the strength to achieve the strategic goal of conquering the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in their entirety this year,” thinks Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. Both areas have been partially occupied by Russia since 2014. Moscow declared control of the entire Luhansk region in July 2022 after capturing Lysychansk, but a subsequent counter-offensive restored Ukrainian presence in the western parts of the region.
The optimal scenario for Ukraine this year would be to go on the defensive and exhaust Russian forces while strengthening its own, which would open the possibility of another counterattack in 2025, writes the Wall Street Journal. A key condition of this strategy would be continued US aid. But it is far from certain, because the bill on foreign aid, which includes 60 billion dollars for Kyiv, has still not been approved by the US Congress.
Russia took control of Avdiyivka in eastern Ukraine after Kiev withdrew its troops. (2/19/2024)
Russia took control of Avdiyivka in eastern Ukraine after Kiev withdrew its troops | Video: Associated Press