2023-07-16 12:00:04
The approaching high business season, the ongoing rejection of the remote work format and the decrease in the affordability of buying a home are stimulating Russians to actively look for rental housing. Against this background, rental rates continue to grow: over the month in the largest regional markets, they increased by more than 3%. Although in many respects the dynamics is explained by the washing out of the most budget lots, on which the main demand is concentrated. The market is not yet ready for a direct increase in prices and the rejection of discounts. The growth of the average cost of rental housing will continue in the next few months as the autumn peak approaches, they are waiting on the market.
The average cost of long-term rental of one-room apartments in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in July amounted to 22.5 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 33.4 thousand rubles. Relative to June, the values increased by 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively. Such data is given in “Cyan.Analytics”, explaining that the trend formed at the end of May for the resumption of growth in rental rates is maintained. Dynamics is ensured not only by the activity of tenants, but also by the reduction in exposure: the share of more expensive lots is growing, experts explain. According to the calculations of “Etazhy”, the rent of one-room apartments in 16 largest cities of the country now costs an average of 21.3 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 25.9 thousand rubles. Over the month, both values increased by 0.9%. In Avito Nedvizhimost, the average long-term rental rate in the largest cities of Russia is estimated at 25 thousand rubles. per month, indicating that the value has grown by 13.6% over the year, but has remained virtually unchanged over the past month.
The most pronounced increase in the average cost of one-room apartments per month was recorded by Cyan.Analytics experts in Omsk, where the figure increased by 9.8%, to 18 thousand rubles. per month. In Nizhny Novgorod, the same dynamics – 7.8%, up to 22.2 thousand rubles. per month. In “Etazhi” they noticed a monthly increase in the average cost of rent by 3% in Volgograd, up to 16.3 thousand rubles. per month. In Krasnoyarsk, the rate increased by 2.9% to 18.1 thousand rubles. per month. In St. Petersburg, according to Cian.Analitiki, the average cost of renting one-room apartments per month has risen in price by 7.5%, to 28.8 thousand rubles. “Dvushki” increased in price by 8.9%, up to 46.5 thousand rubles. per month.
In Moscow, according to Cyan.Analitiki, one-room apartments now cost an average of 43.7 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 76.7 thousand rubles. Over the month, the values increased by 1.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Although Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the rental department at Inkom Real Estate, notes that two-thirds of transactions on the market are still taking place with discounts of 5-10%. But the average price indicators are growing due to the washing out of inexpensive apartments (for 25-30 thousand rubles per month): the demand for them is now twice the supply, although the supply rates do not change, the expert says. In general, the activity of tenants, according to her, remains restrained, although demand increased by 20% relative to the low base of July last year.
The Miel real estate agency adds that the highest average rental rates are now in the Central Administrative District, where a one-room apartment costs an average of 59 thousand rubles. per month, the most budget options can be found in Zelenograd – 27.6 thousand rubles. per month.
Oksana Polyakova says that rental exposure in Moscow is now 31% lower than last summer. There has been an active decline in the number of available options since the beginning of the year. A similar trend is typical for the country as a whole. Konstantin Kamenev, the head of the long-term rental category at Avito Real Estate, notes that over the year, the supply of apartments in the largest cities decreased by 24.6%, in July compared to June – by 4.7%. The expert links the dynamics with good background demand: user activity on the platform increased by 9% over the month.
Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, noticed similar dynamics: now 31.7 thousand lots are available to users in the largest regional markets, which is 19% less than a month ago. The expert draws attention to the fact that many employers are finally curtailing the possibility of remote work – this encourages people to return to renting housing in major cities. Olga Pavlinova, Director of the Floors Leasing Department, does not rule out that the tenant activity season is now generally shifting in favor of the summer months.
“Many of those who rented property in the fall increasingly prefer to do it in advance, realizing that during the high season the volume of supply will noticeably decrease,” the expert argues.
Konstantin Kamenev does not yet see any prerequisites for lowering rental rates. The expert believes that the Russians, on the one hand, began to make a choice in favor of renting rather than buying housing more often due to a decrease in its availability, on the other hand, they began to feel calmer in the current geopolitical events, due to which it is easier to make a decision to move. Olga Pavlinova notes that many owners in the mass segment are now generally not ready to reduce prices, waiting for the start of the high autumn season. Although the managing director of the Miel network, Maria Zhukova, recalls that since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rental market as a whole has gone out of the usual seasonal cycles. The standard autumn price increase is 15%, but in the fall of 2020 there was no dynamics at all, in the fall of 2021 we saw a 50% jump, and in the fall of 2022 the cost of housing was declining, the expert recalls. Although Alexey Popov this year is still counting on a standard seasonal cycle: with an autumn reduction in exposure by 30–35% and an increase in rates by 15–20%.
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