2024-10-30 21:53:00
Two years after the start of the full-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the <a href="http://www.time.news/us-senate-blocks-new-aid-to-ukraine/" title="US Senate blocks new aid to Ukraine“>US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
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Interview between Time.news Editor and Expert on Western Support for Ukraine
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome to our interview today! We’re discussing the latest trends in Western support for Ukraine, particularly as we near the two-year anniversary of the full-scale war. Joining us is Dr. Elena Petrov, an expert on international relations and Eastern European politics. Dr. Petrov, thank you for being here.
Dr. Elena Petrov (EP): Thank you for having me. It’s a critical time for Ukraine and its supporters, so I appreciate the opportunity to discuss these developments.
TNE: Let’s start with the recent findings from the Kiel Institute. They’ve reported a decrease in new aid allocations for Ukraine from August 2023 to January 2024 compared to the previous year. What factors do you think contributed to this trend?
EP: There are several interconnected factors at play. First, we have to consider the fatigue among Western countries. After almost two years of support, some nations may be feeling the financial strain, especially those that are also dealing with their own economic challenges. Moreover, political dynamics in key countries like the US are complicating aid approvals, particularly with ongoing internal debates in the Senate.
TNE: Yes, the situation in the US Senate seems particularly precarious. How do you see this affecting the overall support for Ukraine moving forward?
EP: If the US Congress struggles to pass additional aid packages, it could set a troubling precedent. The US has been a major pillar of support for Ukraine, so any hesitation or delays in funding can severely impact military operations and humanitarian assistance. Furthermore, the EU faced difficulties regarding a significant aid package of 50 billion euros, as noted in the report, which highlights the discord among member states, particularly with Hungary’s position impacting broader consensus.
TNE: It seems there’s a consolidation of support among a smaller set of countries—namely the US, Germany, and certain northern and eastern European nations. How does this dynamic play out in the long term for Ukraine?
EP: In the long term, such a concentrated support system could be a double-edged sword for Ukraine. While a committed core of nations can provide substantial resources, the dwindling number of donors raises concern about the sustainability of support. It could lead to a situation where Ukraine is reliant on a few countries, making them vulnerable to shifts in political climates or priorities in those nations.
TNE: Do you believe the situation in Ukraine has attracted less attention globally, or is it more a reflection of shifting priorities among Western leaders?
EP: It’s a mix of both. As time drags on, new crises—be it economic challenges back home or other geopolitical conflicts—start to divert attention and resources. Leaders who initially rallied around Ukraine may find their constituencies pressing for attention on domestic issues. Ultimately, this could lead to a decrease in public and political will to support Ukraine at the same levels as before.
TNE: What implications does this loss of momentum in support have for Ukraine’s strategy and future defense operations?
EP: Ukraine must adapt its strategy not only to the battlefield conditions but also to the evolving external support landscape. This could mean focusing on securing long-term commitments from existing supporters while also reaching out for new alliances, perhaps looking to bolster partnerships beyond the traditional Western allies.
TNE: Lastly, what do you think will be the most important developments to watch in the coming months regarding Ukraine and its allies?
EP: Definitely watch for the political maneuvering in the US and EU regarding aid packages. Any new proposals and their outcomes will be pivotal. Additionally, I’d keep an eye on Ukraine’s efforts to diversify its support base. Lastly, the ongoing battlefield dynamics—as they directly influence the urgency for aid—will be crucial indicators of how support might shift moving forward.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Petrov, for your insights. It’s clear that the situation remains very fluid, and we will keep a close watch on how these trends unfold.
EP: Thank you for the discussion. It’s a critical time, and staying informed is essential.