The weather: The heat wave begins with Córdoba and Jaén under red warning for temperatures of 44° | Climate and Environment

2023-07-10 12:32:58

Twelve of the 17 autonomous communities, in which 26 million Spaniards livethey find each other this Monday under notice due to high temperatures on the day the first heat wave of summer begins. The worst part will be Andalusia, where the south of Córdoba and almost all of Jaén -areas in which a million inhabitants are concentrated- are under red warning, the maximum of a scale of three, due to the risk of reaching 44°, locally even 45°. The warning is orange, the second level, in the Balearic Islands, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and Madrid for a range that goes from 43° to 39°, while it is yellow, the minimum, in Aragón, Castilla y León, Catalonia, Murcia , Navarra and La Rioja and the Valencian Community by between 34° and 39°.

The peak of the episode will occur between today and Tuesday, when the red will move to Aragon, more areas of the same communities will be on alert and the orange warnings will be doubled until reaching 32 million Spaniards under warning. On Wednesday, initially the last day, there will be a drop in temperatures in the north and in the Balearic Islands, although the extremely hot environment will continue in the southern half, so there are no longer any red warnings and the regions on alert will be reduced to 10 , along with Ceuta and Melilla. Although no significant showers are expected, there could be dry storms, which leave little or no water, but which may be accompanied by abundant electrical equipment and very intense gusts of wind, in the interior of the peninsula, especially in the east. This Monday there are notices for this reason, of yellow level, in Andalusia, Aragon and Castilla-La Mancha and on Tuesday, in the Valencian Community. In addition, the risk of fires will be very high or extreme in much of the country.

Are these temperatures normal for summer? No, a heat wave is, by definition, an anomalous and extreme episode, although these phenomena are currently doped by climate change, which makes them more frequent, earlier, lasting and intense. The temperatures they will be in almost all of Spain between 5° and 10° above normaleven between 10° and 15° in the south and east of Andalusia.

Beyond the background enhancer, the direct cause, explains Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Aemet, is the “arrival of a very hot and dry air mass, coming from North Africa, together with atmospheric stability, which favors its warming due to the presence of slightly cloudy skies and poor ventilation. This mass is “loaded with suspended dust, which will give rise to haze”, which complicates the forecast, since it acts as an umbrella and a greater or lesser entry of dust will cause the values ​​to skyrocket more or less.

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In the Canary Islands, Aemet also expects a warm episode to occur that it may reach wave thresholds as of Tuesday, with temperatures that could exceed 34° in large areas for several days and even 40° in the south of Gran Canaria. Thus, only areas in the north and northwest will be spared from extreme heat. And throughout the episode, the minimum will also be very high, with widespread tropical nights, in which it is difficult to fall asleep because the thermometers do not drop below 20°, and even torrid, above 25°, in the south of the area. Mediterranean, central and southern Peninsula.

Good morning!?????These are the temperatures at this time. The thermometers have not yet dropped below 28 C in Almería. new night #torrid on the shores of the Mediterranean pic.twitter.com/5yyaGpVJHe

— Marc Santandreu (@marcsansa) July 10, 2023

Is it possible to break the national heat ceiling? “It’s difficult, but not entirely dismissable,” says Del Campo. Currently, the country’s maximum temperature record is 47.6 °, reached in La Rambla (Córdoba) in August 2021, two tenths above the previous mark, held by the neighbor and also from Cordoba Montoro. It all depends on how much cloudiness there is, on the greater or lesser presence of suspended dust and on the surface wind.

For days, the temperatures, which began their escalation over the weekend, will continue to rise this Monday in a large part of the territory. “The heat will be intense throughout the country, except in the northwest of the peninsula and coastal areas of the Levant. Except in those areas, 35° will be exceeded in a general way in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, 40° in the central zone and in the southern half, and will be around 44/45° in the Guadalquivir and nearby areas of the province of Jaén”, advances the meteorologist. There will be and on Monday some haze in the south and east of the peninsula and in the Canary Islands the thermal rise will begin and it will be possible to be around 32° in the south of Gran Canaria.

On Tuesday, the intense heat will continue in large areas of the country and will even increase by a few degrees in the east of the Peninsula and in the Canary Islands. “The early morning will be very warm, with torrid nights in parts of the Mediterranean and inland in the central and southern half. During the day, temperatures will exceed 35° in an almost general way, except in the Bay of Biscay, and one more day will be around 40° in large areas of the center and south of the Peninsula, as well as in the northeast, in the interior of Mallorca and in Gran Canaria”, advances Del Campo, to note that the highest values ​​will be 44° or 45° that can be reached in the Guadalquivir valley and inland in the southeast of the peninsula, especially in eastern Andalusia and Murcia.

But be very careful also in the central depression of the Ebro, where it can be around 43° to 45°. In this area, especially in Zaragoza, there will be dry storms, which may form in other parts of the eastern interior of the Peninsula, the Pyrenees and the Iberian system. “The haze will be felt, especially in the south and east of the Peninsula, as well as in the two archipelagos,” the spokesman completes the forecast.

On Wednesday, “there will be a thermal decrease in the north of the peninsula, where the values ​​​​will already be those of the time, but not in the rest.” The temperatures inside the Valencian Community and in the Balearic Islands will also drop somewhat. However, there could be a rebound in southern Andalusia, Murcia and the Canary Islands. One more day, 35° will be exceeded in a general way in the center and south of the Peninsula and in areas of the east and the Balearic Islands. “The highest temperatures, above 40° or 42°, are expected in the Guadalquivir and the southeast of the peninsula where, especially in eastern Andalusia and Murcia, they could exceed 42° to 44°”, details Del Campo. . In the Canary Islands it can exceed 34° in many points and 40° in the south of Gran Canaria. There will continue to be haze, but in the Peninsula it will tend to subside and there will hardly be any precipitation, except for some light rain in points of the Cantabrian Sea.

Thursday “will continue to be a very hot day”, although “temperatures will drop in the eastern end of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands, especially in the southeast”. In the rest of the country “there will be no changes or they will even go up a little”. Once again, 35° will be exceeded in large areas of the central east and south of the Peninsula and in both archipelagos, with more than 40° in the Guadalquivir and south of Gran Canaria, where there will be nights above 20° to 25°. Faced with this scorching heat, 24° or 25° are expected in the Bay of Biscay, normal values ​​for the time of year, even somewhat low.

Can the wave then be concluded on Thursday? At the moment, Aemet does not see a clear end to it, since the uncertainty is high. Although the extension of the areas affected by the extreme temperatures is reduced and it is possible that it is no longer a heat wave, the high temperatures could continue in the east, center and south of the Peninsula, as well as in the Balearic Islands, and “even not a new rise in temperatures is ruled out in some areas for next weekend”. “It seems more likely that, at least temporarily, temperatures will drop in the Canary Islands,” Del Campo glimpses.