Almost four years after his last visit, Emmanuel Macron is expected in Algeria for a three-day visit from August 25. After several months of diplomatic tensions with Algiers, the French president, invited by his counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, hopes to “rebuild” the relationship between the two countries on a lasting basis.
Reduction of visas granted to Algerians, memorial issue, economic partnerships and gas supply for Europeans… To understand the challenges of this visit, 20 Minutes questioned Antoine Basbous, founder and director of the Observatory of Arab Countries (OPA).
Why is Emmanuel Macron going to Algeria?
The French president was invited by his counterpart, but he too wants to improve bilateral relations between the two countries, restore confidence. Franco-Algerian relations have always been very volatile, even with Jacques Chirac. They have just gone through gusts of wind since September 2021.
The quarrel began in the fall of 2021 when Emmanuel Macron received Franco-Algerians at the Elysée. He accused the Algerian “politico-military” system of maintaining a “memory rent” and he questioned the existence of Algeria before colonization. In response, Algeria withdrew its ambassador from France and banned military aircraft from flying over its territory to reach the Sahel, particularly Mali. This visit can allow the two countries to restore mutual trust, but we must remain vigilant, the honeymoon can quickly turn into a storm.
What are the stakes of his visit?
There are several of them. There is that of the gas supply because of the war in Ukraine. Algeria has reserves, but they are limited, it will not be able to supply all of Europe and it has already promised some to Italy.
Then there is the issue of visas. Paris had reduced the number of visas granted to Algeria by 50% last fall in response to the lack of cooperation of Algerian consulates in France to return their nationals expelled from France. Algiers wants to return to the quotas of before and for that cooperates much better, France will have to loosen the vice.
There are also economic issues, but they are less important than before. France’s economic shares in Algeria have been crumbling for several years, to the benefit of Italy and China, which have become bigger partners.
There is obviously the question of memory. Emmanuel Macron took a step to activate bilateral memories, there was the Stora report, recognitions, as when he had qualified colonization as a “crime against humanity”. But Algeria did not take this outstretched hand. Some of the Algerian leaders cultivate, ruminate on the past and do not want to give up. One hundred and thirty-two years of colonization and a seven-year war leave deep scars.
Why is this visit diplomatically important for Emmanuel Macron?
Relations with Algeria are important for Emmanuel Macron, it is a neighboring country with an intense demographic mix and an economic partner. How many French people of Algerian origin are there? How many Algerians live in France? There has always been a particularity in the relations between the two countries. It is a country with which we have a common history, a flow of business and a significant demographic flow.
Moreover, Emmanuel Macron and Abdelmadjid Tebboune have good personal relations. Unfortunately, in Algeria, the president is not the ultimate decision-maker, he is often the spokesperson for the decision-makers. This is the particularity of the position of the Algerian head of state, he does not embody his state. Abdelmadjid Tebboune will have to agree with his generals so that the commitments made are kept. Afterwards, will Emmanuel Macron succeed in convincing the Algerian decision-makers? How long will the upturn last? Even if the French president is good at convincing, it is difficult to predict how long the thinning will last or when the next storm will hit bilateral relations.