[美 대선 D-20]
Trump leads by about 1%p
Analysis of “Harris’ poor performance due to the departure of non-whites”
Harris has the upper hand in early voter approval ratings
In seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which will determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on the 5th of next month, Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump is ahead of Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris. Some opinion poll results are being announced.
According to the opinion poll analysis site ‘Real Clear Politics (RCP)’, as of the 15th (local time), out of the seven competitive states, candidate Harris was ahead in only one, Wisconsin. In the remaining six battleground states, candidate Trump was slightly ahead by about 1 percentage point.
On the other hand, according to the results of major opinion polls compiled by the election prediction site ‘FiveThirtyEight (538)’ and the Washington Post (WP), candidate Harris beat candidate Trump within the margin of error in four states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. ahead in However, famous political analyst Nate Silver introduced that there was a recent survey showing that candidate Trump’s approval rating was 3 percentage points ahead in Pennsylvania, which is considered the biggest battleground in this presidential election. He diagnosed that candidate Trump’s approval rating is not rising quickly, but is on a clear upward trajectory.
Candidate Trump’s rise is also felt in early voting, where voters with a strong tendency to support the Democratic Party participate. According to CNN on the 14th, Trump received support from 48% of respondents who said they were willing to participate in early voting in seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania. It is 1 percentage point higher than candidate Harris (47%). This survey was conducted by Harvard University’s Center for American Politics (CAPS) and public opinion polling company Harris Poll on 3,145 registered voters nationwide from the 11th to the 13th.
Considering that Democratic supporters typically rally strongly in early voting, and Republican supporters rally strongly in general voting on the day of the presidential election, the fact that candidate Trump is doing well in early voting in battleground states is not welcome news for candidate Harris. However, in the approval rating of early voters in all regions of the United States, candidate Harris (51.4%) was ahead of candidate Trump (42.6%) by a large margin.
Analysis suggests that the main reason for candidate Harris’ recent poor performance in swing states is the departure of non-white voters, such as blacks and Latinos, who had been the core support base of the Democratic Party. According to the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, 78% of black voters currently support candidate Harris. This is in contrast to the Democratic presidential candidates who received overwhelming support of more than 90% from black voters during the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Reporter Choi Ji-seon aurinko@donga.com