Trade, development aid, economic relations, even if Donald Trump seems to ignore the continent during these speeches, the repercussions of his economic policy on Africa could be more significant than in his first term.
Will African economies be hit by Trump-style protectionism? The increase in customs duties of 10 or even 20% will necessarily have consequences. All American imports will be affected and African products should not escape the rule.
South African vehicles, the diamonds of Lesotho hydrocarbons such as Nigerian crude oil or some minerals: if Donald Trump implements his program, customs duties will increase on all these products.
Exports hit by protectionism
If we take into consideration the weight of exports in the countries’ GDP, Lesotho, Madagascar THE Ghana According to a study by the independent company, the most affected countries are Libya and South Africa Global sovereign consultancy published a few weeks before the elections.
In 2017, when Donald Trump was first elected to the White House, protectionist measures only affected a limited number of products. The effects were therefore very weak for Africa. There, again, if Trump does what he says, it will be harder to bear.
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Agoa in the crosshairs?
Uncertainties also concern the future of trade agreements and in particular of the main agreement: the African Growth and Opportunity Act more commonly called the ago and which allows African countries to export to the United States under certain conditions.
Donald Trump makes no secret of it, he is skeptical of these multilateral frameworks. In 2018 he had already suspended the right to Rwanda export clothing through Agoa. A sanction against Kigali which had decided to increase customs duties on imports of second-hand clothing. Donald Trump uses this trade deal to put pressure on the recipient countries… who are also regularly subject to reassessment.
The program expires in September 2025, and some experts are worried. Donald Trump did not specify anything during his campaign, but he could very well decide to change Agoa which generated almost 50 billion dollars in trade last year.
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China hit = Africa hit
There will also be indirect consequences, particularly if the trade war between the United States and the Chinese intensifies. There are large customs duties on Chinese products sold in the United States. and the mechanical effect is as follows: slowdown of the Chinese economy, so African countries that export a lot to China may suffer. There economists talk about countries like Angola or the Democratic Republic of Congo exporting their minerals to China.
Another uncertainty: will US development aid be cut by President Trump? This is a very important figure for the African continent, almost 4 billion dollars this year.
South African media I wonder, for example, whether the American program to fight HIV will continue.
Meanwhile, African heads of state are playing politics. It’s a congratulatory concert to the president elected a week ago. Because if Africa isn’t of interest to Trump… it’s essential not to get angry right away.
What are the potential economic consequences for African countries if Trump were to implement higher tariffs on imports?
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Economic Expert on the Impact of Trump’s Economic Policies on Africa
Time.news Editor: Good afternoon, and welcome to our interview segment. Today, we have the privilege of talking with Dr. Jane Mendez, a leading economist specializing in international trade and its impact on emerging markets. Dr. Mendez, thank you for joining us!
Dr. Jane Mendez: Thank you for having me! It’s a pleasure to be here.
Time.news Editor: Let’s dive right in. As we know, Donald Trump’s economic policies have stirred quite a debate, particularly regarding trade and protectionism. Your recent commentary highlights how these policies could have significant repercussions on African economies. Could you elaborate on that?
Dr. Jane Mendez: Absolutely. The potential for Trump-style protectionism to influence African economies is indeed concerning. If customs duties are increased by 10% to 20%, as Trump has suggested, it would directly impact American imports from Africa, which include vital products such as diamonds from Lesotho and crude oil from Nigeria. This could lead to reduced demand, and the economies of nations reliant on these exports may suffer considerably.
Time.news Editor: That’s a crucial point. You mentioned in your research that countries like Lesotho, Madagascar, and Ghana could be severely impacted due to the reliance on exports. Can you share more about that analysis?
Dr. Jane Mendez: Certainly. When examining the weight of exports in GDP for these countries, the risks become evident. For instance, South Africa, which has a substantial automotive industry, or Libya, which relies heavily on oil exports—these nations could face significant economic downturns should American tariffs be increased dramatically. A study from Global Sovereign Consultancy anticipated that the most affected countries would indeed be Libya and South Africa, highlighting how interconnected these economies are to U.S. trade policies.
Time.news Editor: In Trump’s first term, the effects were relatively contained. What makes you think a second term would have a different outcome for Africa?
Dr. Jane Mendez: In 2017, the protectionist measures were targeted at a limited number of product categories, so the overall impact was less severe. However, if Trump’s administration fully embraces his protective agenda this time around, more sectors will be impacted, leading to broader economic consequences for African nations. The potential increase in tariffs affects not just specific goods but may ripple through entire economic sectors that rely on trade partnerships with the U.S.
Time.news Editor: The African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, is also in question. What do you foresee for this program under a Trump administration?
Dr. Jane Mendez: AGOA faces significant uncertainty going forward. Trump has openly criticized multilateral trade agreements, and his administration’s past actions—such as the suspension of Rwanda’s eligibility to export clothing through AGOA—illustrate a willingness to use trade agreements as leverage. Given that AGOA is set to expire in 2025, countries that rely on the benefits of this program may find themselves reassessing their strategies in light of this precarious landscape.
Time.news Editor: With such looming changes, what should African nations be doing now to prepare for these potential shifts?
Dr. Jane Mendez: Africa needs to diversify its trade partners and seek to establish bilateral trade agreements beyond the U.S. Furthermore, enhancing intra-African trade through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area can mitigate reliance on any single external market, particularly as these shifts in U.S. policy could lead to long-lasting economic consequences.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Mendez, for your insightful analysis. It’s clear that the implications of U.S. trade policies, particularly under a potential Trump administration, merit close attention from African leaders and policymakers alike.
Dr. Jane Mendez: Thank you! It’s a complex issue that will require strategic foresight.
Time.news Editor: Indeed. We appreciate your time today and look forward to more discussions on these vital economic matters.
Dr. Jane Mendez: Thank you for having me again!