[2024 미국 대선]
“Trump’s probability of winning is 54%, Harris’s is 45%”… WP “Trump has the upper hand in agendas such as economy and diplomacy”
Latinos and black men are leaving the Democratic Party… Analysis of “conservative movement across American society”
<img src="https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2024/10/23/130273375.1.jpg" alt="Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (center) answers questions from reporters on the vice president’s plane, Air Force Two, at Philadelphia Airport in Pennsylvania on the 21st (local time). On this day, he traveled through the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the declining industrial zone (rustbelt) of the northeast. Philadelphia = AP Newsis”/>
Two weeks before the U.S. presidential election, Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump was found to be ahead of Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in the odds of winning according to major election forecasting agencies. A survey also showed that Candidate Trump received higher support than Candidate Harris on major presidential election agendas such as the economy, diplomacy, and immigration.
Candidate Trump’s rise is not unrelated to the mobilization of Republican supporters and the inability of candidate Harris to receive sufficient support from traditional Democratic Party supporters such as Latinos, black men, and labor unions. Some say that there is a movement towards conservatism across society as a backlash against the ‘political correctness’ that has recently been emphasized in American society, and that this is working to the advantage of candidate Trump.
● The probability of Trump winning increases
According to the Economist’s own prediction model on the 21st (local time), candidate Trump’s probability of winning was 54%, ahead of candidate Harris (45%). It was also predicted that candidate Trump would win 276 of the 538 electoral votes that determine the winner of the presidential election, and candidate Harris would win 262.
In the Economist’s prediction model, this is the first time since August 19th of this year that candidate Trump’s probability of winning has surpassed candidate Harris’s. This model is a simulation method that reflects major public opinion poll results, past election results, population characteristics, and economic conditions in each region. The Economist diagnosed that swing voters in the Republican Party are returning to candidate Trump.
The prediction models of ABC’s election website ‘FiveThirtyEight (538)’ and political media outlet The Hill also showed that candidate Trump’s probability of winning was 51% and 52%, respectively, higher than candidate Harris’s. The ‘Silver Bulletin’, founded by famous political analyst Nate Silver, also predicted candidate Trump’s probability of winning at 52.7%. It was also predicted that candidate Trump’s ‘possibility of a landslide victory’ of securing 300 seats in the electoral college would reach 33.3%.
The Washington Post (WP) and George Mason University’s Graduate School of Public Administration conducted a survey of 5,016 voters in seven battleground states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada) from the 30th of last month to the 15th of this month and announced it on the 21st. In one survey, most respondents believed that candidate Trump would perform better on major presidential election agendas. Responses supporting candidate Trump’s policies on the economy and price agenda were 51% and 49%, respectively, significantly ahead of candidate Harris (economy 36%, prices 33%). In particular, candidate Trump received 43% support in the question, ‘Who do you think will respond better to threats to democracy?’, narrowly ahead of candidate Harris (40%).
In questions regarding the war in Ukraine and the response to the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas (war in the Middle East), candidate Trump received support of 47% and 45%, respectively. On the other hand, candidate Harris’s approval rating was only 34% for the Ukraine war and 31% for the Middle East war.
● Latino and black men leave the Democratic Party
Many analyzes say that Candidate Harris’s recent slump is related to the departure of the Democratic Party’s traditional support base. According to a survey conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University on the 21st, 49% of Latino voters responded, “I support candidate Trump,” compared to only 38% for candidate Harris. This is a big difference from the 59% of Latino voters who supported President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. In this survey, candidate Harris received 72% support from black voters, but it was also significantly lower than President Biden’s approval rating (92%) during the presidential election four years ago. This is interpreted as showing that non-white voters, many of whom are socially disadvantaged, are more sensitive to high prices and illegal immigration.
There is also an analysis that the departure of the Democratic Party’s core supporters indicates the conservatism of American society. After the emergence of former President Barack Obama, the first black president, fatigue with the emphasis on political correctness such as ‘Black Lives Matter’ and ‘Me Too Movement’ has increased. Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University, wrote on his blog, “Conservatism in American society is already underway, and black and Latino men are increasingly moving toward the Republican camp.”