[2024 미국 대선 D-8]
US RCP, major opinion poll results
WSJ poll Trump 47% – Harris 45%
With the U.S. presidential election on the 5th of next month just 8 days away, Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump surpassed Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in the national opinion poll average on the 26th (local time). Although the two candidates are engaged in a close race, there is analysis that the odds are tilting towards candidate Trump, whose approval ratings are on the rise.
According to the average of the latest major opinion polls compiled by Real Clear Politics (RCP), a US election analysis site, as of the 26th, candidate Trump’s national approval rating was 48.4%, slightly ahead of candidate Harris (48.3%). This is the first time in about two and a half months since August 5th of this year that he has surpassed candidate Harris in this survey.
In a national approval rating survey released by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 24th, candidate Trump’s approval rating was 47%, ahead of candidate Harris (45%) by 2 percentage points. In the same survey at the end of August, candidate Harris had 47% and Trump had 45%, but the situation reversed within two months. A survey by economic media outlet Forbes on the 23rd also showed candidate Trump’s approval rating at 51%, beating candidate Harris’s (49%).
A similar trend was observed in the ‘seven major swing states’ such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which determine the outcome of the presidential election. In an Emerson University survey released on the 24th, candidate Trump led candidate Harris (48%) with 49% support in Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state. In North Carolina, candidate Trump defeated candidate Harris (48%) with 50%. Even in Wisconsin, which had been considered a Democratic-dominant region, candidate Trump was ahead of candidate Harris (48%) with 49%. However, in a survey by Marist, a public opinion polling company conducted in Georgia, the approval ratings of the two candidates were tied at 49%.
The U.S. presidential election is not based on national vote percentage, but rather the candidate who wins each of the 50 states monopolizes the electoral college allocated to that state. Through this, the candidate who wins the majority (270 or more) of the 538 electoral votes becomes the owner of the White House. In the 2016 presidential election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was ahead of candidate Trump in total votes, but lost in the Electoral College.
Washington = Correspondent Moon Byeong-ki weappon@donga.com