With less than 30 days left before the U.S. presidential election to be held on the 5th of next month, Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump, who had been behind Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris in several national approval rating surveys, is closely following Harris. In particular, there is an analysis that Candidate Harris cannot guarantee victory in the northeastern ‘Rust Belt’ (a declining industrial area), which will determine the presidential election, as she does not receive as strong support from labor union voters, who were previously considered the Democratic Party’s core support base, as did previous Democratic candidates. It comes out.
Pennsylvania and Michigan, which belong to the Rust Belt, are home to the steel and automobile industries, respectively, and unions have a strong influence. Among the total voters in both states, the proportion of voters belonging to unions also exceeds 14%. There are predictions that if she does not win in these two places, it will be difficult for candidate Harris to enter the White House.
● Harris, Democratic presidential candidate with lowest union support since 1984
In a survey of 1,714 adults nationwide conducted by Yahoo News and public opinion polling company YouGov on the 2nd and 4th, candidate Harris’s approval rating was 48%, slightly higher than candidate Trump’s (46%). In the same survey on the 13th of last month, candidate Harris received 50% and candidate Trump received 45%. At that time, Candidate Harris continued to rise in approval ratings, receiving a review of ‘dominance’ in the TV debate with Candidate Trump three days ago. However, in about three weeks, the approval rating gap narrowed from 5 percentage points to 2 percentage points.
In a survey conducted by Reuters with the public opinion polling company Ipsos on 1,272 adults nationwide from the 4th to 7th, candidate Harris’ approval rating was 46%, slightly ahead of candidate Trump (43%). Here too, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed compared to last month’s survey (47% for Harris, 40% for Trump).
This investigation was conducted immediately after the TV debate between Democratic vice presidential candidate and Minnesota governor Tim Walz and Republican vice presidential candidate and Ohio senator JD Vance on the 1st. At the time, there were many evaluations that Candidate Vance showed stable speaking skills, while Candidate Walz did not show any particular strengths.
It is also a concern for the Democratic Party that candidate Harris is not winning the favor of major labor unions. Recently, the largest transportation union, the Teamsters, and the International Association of Firefighters (IAFF) declared, “We will not support a specific candidate in this presidential election.” In effect, they refused to support candidate Harris. According to CNN on the 30th of last month, candidate Harris was ahead of candidate Trump by only 9 percentage points in the approval rating of voters from union households. This is the lowest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate among this voter base since 1984.
During the 2020 presidential election, the percentage of these voters supporting President Joe Biden was 19 percentage points higher than that of candidate Trump. During the 2016 presidential election, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (former Secretary of State) also had a 12 percentage point higher approval rating among voters from union households than candidate Trump.
According to the average results of recent major opinion polls by RealClear Politics (RCP), another opinion polling company, the approval rating gap between candidate Harris and candidate Trump in three Rust Belt states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, is approximately 1 percentage point. .
Congressional media such as The Hill diagnosed that unlike President Biden, who was born into a working family in Scranton, a coal mining town in Pennsylvania, many union members are not familiar with candidate Harris from California. In addition, it was analyzed that many union members are supportive of candidate Trump’s strong tariff policy and illegal immigration restrictions.
● Harris “Hamas is evil” vs. Trump “Supports Israel’s attack on Iran”
On the 7th, marking one year since the outbreak of war between the Palestinian armed group Hamas and Israel, the two candidates also mentioned the situation in the Middle East. Candidate Harris issued a statement a year ago characterizing Hamas’ preemptive strike as “evil” and criticized it as “cruel and disgusting.” He also said he would “do everything” to help residents of the Gaza Strip, Palestine, ruled by Hamas, escape from Hamas.
Candidate Trump said of this war in a radio interview, “(If I were president) it would never have happened. “Biden has the worst foreign policy and Harris is even dumber than him.” When asked whether he supported Israel, which was hit by an Iranian missile attack on the 1st, taking retaliatory action such as striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, he said, “Israel has the right to attack (Iran).”
Reporter Choi Ji-seon aurinko@donga.com
Reporter Yunjin Kim kyj@donga.com
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2024-10-09 01:56:40