The election results speak for themselves: a year later, Trumpism survives the partial eclipse of its architect. In fact, Trumpism is even better off without Trump.
First, in Trump’s absence on the scene, Biden is no longer the November 3 savior. His inability to transcend party lines, his inability to rally his own camp around the Oval Office and to bring in line the man who derails the democratic train (Senator Joe Manchin) have weakened the major reforms … Those who would have made it possible to cushion the economic burden weighing on American families, to operate a Keynesian economic stimulus, to restore a semblance of legitimacy to federal institutions.
Thus, in the absence of a rallying point – Trump -, due to congressional inertia, the failed promises of a post-pandemic era, this coupled with supply chain failures and rising inflation, l he democratic electorate has demobilized. Enough to make the ballot boxes sing a whole different tune: a Republican wind has blown over the election in Virginia (where the GOP won the posts of governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and a majority in the House of Delegates), in New Jersey (where the Democratic governor, who had to pass hands down, had to pedal much harder than expected to snatch victory), Pennsylvania (with a seat on the Supreme Court and changes in school boards), in New York (with several municipal gains).
Second, the Republican strategy has shifted towards normalization by adopting a form of smiling Trumpism – Trump without Trump – which rides on racial anxiety without straining the minority electorate. This is not the first time that this racial theme has been used electorally. She was present in the campaigns of Nixon, Bush Sr., Clinton, or even in the movement of birthers questioning the birthplace of Barack Obama: no need to speak of Trump to perceive the recurrence and electoral acuteness of this credo. And this is not the first time that the educational institution has been involved in it either – it suffices to mention the school (de) segregation or the prayer in the school in the 1960s. But this time it is fine. further: the cultural wars have indeed entered schools.
Thus, in Virginia, Youngkin’s affability has become an acceptable vehicle for Trumpian ideas through “parental rights” at the heart of the school battlefield. If there is any unifying ground, this is it: in the context of debates over the wearing of masks in schools, of testing and quarantines, and in so far as they have had to juggle the homeschooling, parents of all stripes have become an almost perfect electoral target. From the place of transgender students in sports teams to the content of literature (around, for example, the desire of conservative activists to ban the study of Beloved by Toni Morrison), to the hypothetical teaching (it is not in the high school program) of the famous ” critical race theory “, These issues represented the keys to several school elections: they explain that women have slipped to the Republican side, even Trumpist … an indicator of the winds of change that could blow on the elections of 2022.
Third, Biden found himself embroiled in a legacy of Trumpism, America’s First Creed, which he reformulated in terms of “foreign policy for the middle class.” By devoting the subordination of foreign policy to American public opinion, volatile by definition, rather than to the American national interest, which is thought to be long-term, he fossilized any hope of restoring the credibility of the United States on the international scene. Robert Gates would add, as he had written in his time, that the lack of judgment of Senator then Vice-President Biden in the field of foreign policy led him to multiply the errors … and that, unsurprisingly, he did so. the same was true once he took over the presidency. Unable to restore the legitimacy of the United States in a withering liberal order, to restore the confidence of allies who learned that a president’s word was of limited value, he scuttled the withdrawal of Afghanistan and torpedoed the link with the countries of Europe in the name of an alliance with Australia. Even more, in the face of the rapid rise of the Chinese giant – a real threat, imminent, real, substantial, if we are to believe the Pentagon, which counts nuclear warheads and assesses the superiority of the Chinese military navy -, Biden n Ultimately, only Trumpian recipes: trade tariffs, Indo-peaceful posturing, support for Taiwan, in a context where the American decline is consecrated, when more leadership and international cooperation are needed. With the risk to the key, that of wanting to federate the country in front of a common enemy (China) and, by doing so, to feed other types of divisions within the American company.
So, of Biden revolution there is no. Nor a democratic dream. One year before the next elections, three years from a possible return of Trump, it is finally the Democratic Party that is crumbling, facing Republicans who have been able to normalize Trumpism.