And if François Hollande in the end he was right… Today “things are better”, no offense to those who prefer to sharpen their sarcasm! Derided in the spring for having launched this new element of language intended for government communication, pure Coué method, “hypnosis” according to his detractors, the presidential formula is now an observation. At least on the labor market, where the signs of recovery are indisputable: according to INSEE, job creation in the private sector reached, in the 3rd quarter, a level never seen since the 2008 crisis.
The service sector in the lead, industry in the red
Because the numbers are there, tangible. The market sector (private non-agricultural) reported its sixth consecutive quarter of net job creation, with 52,200 new jobs in Q3. Something never seen since the 3rd quarter of 2007. A trend confirmed over one year, with a total of 145,100 additional salaried jobs.
The main locomotive of this new cycle set in motion by the French machine, services (+136,000) have been creating jobs continuously for two years. This is followed by temporary workers, who are also well oriented (+ 49,000). Temporary work has in fact recovered and exceeded the symbolic threshold of 600,000 people, for the first time since mid-2008. Far from being healed, however, construction but above all industry. The latter continues to be in the dark continuously since 2001, that is, 62 consecutive quarters in the red.
An improvement the government is proud of. This “testifies to the newfound confidence of businesses”, greets the Minister of Labor, Myriam El Khomri, thanks above all to measures such as “the responsibility pact, the CICE (tax credit for competitiveness and employment) and the aid to hiring SMEs. ..’. Enough to give them more oxygen, as confirmed by the economist Mathieu Plane, of the OFCE: “All these measures, now at cruising speed, have made it possible to relaunch growth rich in jobs and the effects have also been accelerated by the success of the hiring bonus. » From 1 January, every company or association that hires a new employee who pays up to 1,900 euros gross per month will benefit, during the first two years of the contract, from a quarterly bonus of 500 euros, or 4,000 euros in total. Not to mention that this year, thanks to the training plan for 500,000 people, there are fewer new workers on the job market, usually around 130,000 new entrants, looking for work: 90,000 according to the Office.
Many elements for a real clarification, which should allow François Hollande to honor the promise of a turnaround by the end of the year, key for a new presidential candidacy. And, why not, to announce it the day after the publication of unemployment data for October, scheduled for November 24th. Immediately after the publication of the third quarter unemployment rate next Thursday. Highly awaited results which, according to Mathieu Plane’s forecasts, “should be good”.
Time.news Interview with Economist Mathieu Plane: Analyzing the French Labor Market Recovery
Editor: Welcome, Mathieu Plane, economist at the OFCE. We’re excited to have you with us today. Let’s dive right in! The recent data shows a remarkable recovery in France’s labor market, with job creation hitting levels not seen since 2007. What do you attribute this resurgence to?
Mathieu Plane: Thank you for having me! Yes, the job creation figures are indeed impressive. We’ve seen private sector employment increasing consistently, especially in the service sector. One of the key factors driving this recovery has been governmental measures like the responsibility pact and the CICE, which have aimed to boost competitiveness and promote employment.
Editor: Indeed, those measures have been widely discussed. Critics have labeled this approach as a “hypnotic” tactic by President François Hollande. Do you believe there is merit in these initiatives despite the skepticism?
Mathieu Plane: Absolutely. While some might dismiss Hollande’s assertions about improvement as mere optimism, the numbers don’t lie. The data from INSEE shows tangible job creation, particularly in services, which has been a major contributor to this turnaround. Of course, skepticism is healthy in economics, but success in job creation speaks volumes about the underlying economic conditions.
Editor: Speaking of sectors, the services seem to be leading the charge, while industry lags behind. What can you tell us about this dichotomy?
Mathieu Plane: It’s quite striking. The service sector has created over 136,000 jobs in the past year and has been on a continuous upward trajectory for two years now. Meanwhile, the industrial sector has faced challenges for a long time—62 consecutive quarters in the red is a significant decline. This reflects structural issues in manufacturing and other traditional industries that need to be addressed through innovation and investment.
Editor: You mentioned temporary work rebounding as well. How does this fit into the bigger picture of employment trends?
Mathieu Plane: The increase in temporary jobs, over 49,000 in the last quarter, indicates a shift in how companies are adapting to market conditions. Temporary work often serves as a barometer of employer confidence. With over 600,000 temporary positions recorded, it suggests businesses are willing to take a chance on hiring, albeit in a more flexible capacity. This can be a precursor to more stable, long-term employment opportunities.
Editor: That’s an interesting point. What implications do you see for the future of the labor market in France? Can these trends be sustained?
Mathieu Plane: Sustainability will depend on a number of factors. Growth in the service sector can continue if businesses maintain confidence and investment follows. However, significant challenges remain in the industrial sector, which requires targeted policy interventions and support to spur recovery. The government’s role will be crucial in fostering a balanced approach to employment across sectors.
Editor: Thank you, Mathieu. Before we wrap up, do you have any final thoughts for our readers regarding the French economy’s trajectory?
Mathieu Plane: It’s essential to remain cautiously optimistic. While we are seeing hopeful signs in job creation, we should keep an eye on the challenges that still exist, particularly in manufacturing. Continuous adaptation and support for industries lagging behind will be crucial for a robust recovery. It’s a pivotal moment for France, and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Editor: Thank you, Mathieu Plane, for your insights. It’s been a pleasure discussing these significant developments with you today!
Mathieu Plane: Thank you for having me!