Leading Russian online recruitment platforms do not yet record significant changes in the recruiting strategies of Russian companies. In the future, however, a fall in wages and an increase in unemployment are almost inevitable – for example, the level of the latter may rise to 7% by the end of 2022.
Leading Russian online recruitment platforms do not yet record noticeable changes in the dynamics of posting vacancies and resumes on their portals. Among those interviewed by Kommersant are hh.ru, SuperJob and Avito Rabota, which together, according to the Expert RA rating agency, account for approximately 60% of all vacancies posted on the Internet.
By the beginning of 2022, we recall that the Russian labor market has already recovered from the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic: in January, the unemployment rate, according to Rosstat, was 4.4%, which is comparable to the same period in 2018-2019. However, the introduction of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation by a number of Western countries and the subsequent withdrawal from the country of a number of large retailers and firms with foreign participation may reduce the number of jobs available to the population.
However, so far, according to hh.ru, the number of posted vacancies on the online service portal exceeds last year’s figure by 26%, and the number of resumes – by 4%.
According to the leading expert of the company, Natalia Danina, there are no “drastic changes” in any segment of the labor market now.
“So far, too little time has passed since the onset of a new reality in February 2022, and the labor market usually does not react instantly – the approximate time for indicating a reaction is one and a half to two weeks,” she says. At the same time, up to half of the clients-employers of the service “took a wait-and-see attitude” – the rest of the recruitment of new employees takes place at the planned pace and mode.
Similarly, the situation was commented on by Kommersant in Avito Rabota: there are no drastic changes in terms of posting vacancies or resumes on the platform. The press service of SuperJob also reported that the index of employers’ activity in the labor market is still at the level of 2021. “As long as inertia works: a large demand for personnel cannot be replaced by a sharp drop overnight. Employers remember well what it is like to look for personnel in a scarce market,” says Natalya Golovanova, head of the SuperJob research center. However, she admits that a difficult market situation can be used by companies to get rid of inefficient employees – 7% of employers surveyed by the portal spoke about headcount optimization.
At the same time, deterioration in the Russian labor market will be inevitable in the future.
However, according to Kommersant, there are no clear forecasts for the fall of the Russian economy even in the government, although departments, including the Ministry of Labor, have already submitted to the White House the first “draft” options for measures to support their core areas (for more details, see Kommersant on March 1 ). The first negative changes may occur at the end of March – by this moment, for example, the situation in the aviation industry will be determined, which, in fact, has faced the impossibility of its work in its current form. Large Russian businesses from other segments of the Russian economy will rebuild their projects from several months to six months. Retailers, who basically announced the suspension of their work in the Russian Federation and are not laying off workers yet, will also have to decide on the continuation of cooperation with them within six months, said Yulia Ostrovskaya, a lawyer with the Center for Social and Labor Rights. “It is hardly profitable for companies to pay salaries to non-working employees, and it is possible to transfer them to a part-time or part-time work week for up to six months,” she says.
According to Vladimir Gimpelson, head of the Center for Labor Studies at the Higher School of Economics, in the future, changes in the Russian labor market will most likely follow a familiar scenario: employers will try to reduce wages rather than employment, while workers will face loss of income first of all. “But some enterprises that are most dependent on imports or are involved in international activities may completely stop their work,” he says.
Nevertheless, according to Igor Polyakov, a leading economist at the Central Committee for the MASF, by the end of the year the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation may reach 7%. Basically, according to him, industry, transport, trade and public catering will suffer.
Although it is still impossible to calculate the scenario for reducing the income of the population, the authorities have already announced the first measures to support them. For example, yesterday, President Vladimir Putin announced the introduction of payments for low-income families with children aged 8 to 16, which will support one of the most vulnerable categories of Russian households in terms of income.