Washington: Now only two weeks are left for the US Presidential elections. The presidential elections of 2024 are also witnessing a close contest like the last two elections. American polls show that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain in the race. This time, only the one who will be successful in taking a good lead in the seven most important swing states will win the race for the White House. Swing states are those states where voters have not yet decided between Trump and Harris. In such a situation, let us know how the electoral mathematics of these seven states will decide the path to the White House.
How important are swing states?
This time Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are being considered as swing states in the US presidential elections. The last battle of the elections is to be fought in these states only. These seven states have 93 of the total 593 Electoral College votes in all the states of America. Regarding the remaining Electoral College, estimates show that 226 are going to Harris and 219 are going to Donald Trump. Any candidate will have to reach the magic number of 270 to win. In such a situation, 93 college votes from 7 states become important.
Opinion polls show that the voters of these states have not yet made it clear who they are with between Harris and Trump. In 2020, the Electoral College decided Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point. Last week’s New York Times survey shows that this time there is a close contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in 7 swing states. In all states the difference between the two was either in percentage or by a maximum of two points.
All eyes on Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has the most of all 7 swing states, with 19 Electoral College seats. Because of this it becomes important. Trump and Harris as well as their fellow candidates have visited Pennsylvania dozens of times. Along with this, efforts are also being made to reach here through television advertisements. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she will have to win either North Carolina or Georgia, which will be a difficult task. Democrats have won here only three times in four decades.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he will have to win either Wisconsin or Michigan. In 2016, Trump won both these states and was the first Republican leader to do so since 1980. Reports show that Harris and Trump’s campaign team and their allies have spent $279 million on television advertising as of October 7. At the same time, $204 million has been spent in Michigan.
What do the previous figures say?
This time, out of the 7 swing states, there are five who voted for Biden in 2020 and for Trump in 2016. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the year 2020, all these states were won by a margin of three percent or less. The names of Nevada and North Carolina are also included in the list of swing states. However, this list has been changing. Since 1992, 30 states have consistently voted for different parties in elections. In the 1992 elections, most of the states changed sides and gave a chance to a new party as compared to the last time.
Trump had breached the Democrat stronghold
On the other hand, there are 20 states including Washington DC, where only one party has been winning in every election since 1988. Known as the Blue Wall for supporting Democrats in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, in 2016, Trump had won all these states by a close margin. In 2020, Biden was successful in bringing back the Democrats here again.