Washington: More than two-thirds of America’s likely voters believe this is the most important election of their lives. These include 72% Trump supporters and 70% Harris supporters. 5% voters are not able to decide to whom they will vote. It is believed that these 5% will decide who among these two will emerge victorious and who will return empty handed. The irony is that only 24% of undecided voters agree that this election is the most important election of their lives. So how painful it must be for those who actually care about the election that it will be decided by many who do not care.
No candidate can win unilaterally
About a week before the elections, many such surveys have come out, which have shown a close rivalry between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. There has not been any survey in which there seems to be a one-sided victory. In such a situation, at present these surveys are both good and bad signs for Trump and Harris. Many Americans believe that there is a lot at stake in this election. Despite this, both swing states and undecided voters are increasing the difficulties for the candidates. Till the election night it cannot be predicted who will win or lose in this election.
Somewhere Trump is ahead and somewhere Harris is ahead.
Kamala Harris’s easiest path to victory is to win the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If she loses in the Sun Belt battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina), taking with her the three Great Lakes states along with Nebraska’s 2nd District and all the other states won by Joe Biden in 2020, Harris will be exactly 270. Will get electoral votes. Polling averages in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin currently show a difference of less than one point between Harris and Trump.
The margin of victory will be very less
If that holds up to Election Day, it will be the first time in at least 50 years that the final average margin in any of those three states will be within single digits. What’s more, the margins in those states have remained steadily narrow since Harris entered the race in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever held a lead of 5 points or more in states that mirror national polling. This is the first time in over 60 years that no candidate has held a lead of 5 points or more nationally at any point in the race.
Republicans hopeful of Trump’s victory
Many Republicans are hoping the close polling points to a landslide victory for Trump next month. Former President Trump had performed much better in the elections in 2016 and 2020. If Trump does this again, he can move towards victory by getting more than 300 electoral votes. However, experts believe that if there is a decline in voting, Trump will directly benefit from it.
Kamala Harris has also created a good environment
Current President Joe Biden’s approval rating is very poor. No incumbent party has ever won a second term when the president’s approval rating is so low. No incumbent party has ever won a second term when so few people feel the country is moving in the right direction. However, Trump may also fail to take advantage of these opportunities. In the 2016 elections, Trump was less popular than his rival Hillary Clinton, but he still won. Republicans performed poorly in the 2022 midterm elections. Due to this, it is feared that the future path is not going to be easy for Trump.