21 June 2022- Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana, Biotech virologist, posted a message on Facebook Anan Jongkaewwattana. One study was recently published in Nature Medicine by a Hong Kong research team. About the performance prediction formula Effectiveness of the current formulation of the COVID-19 vaccine (Wuhan strain) on viral changes occurring at the key strategic point of the spike protein. By collecting data on research on vaccine efficacy and efficacy from 49 studies, totaling nearly 2 million samples from 31 areas in many countries. The research team said If using the developed formula, it will be found that The efficacy of the mRNA vaccine per delta was calculated at 82.8%, which is close to the real figure of 83%.
If the formula was taken into account with vaccines on different platforms, the research team found that Efficiency The effectiveness of vaccines decreases as the virus changes unequally. The most susceptible to vaccine decreases was Inactivated vaccines and protein subunit vaccines where the slopes of the graphs are similar However, the efficacy of the vaccine against the initial inactivated vaccine was less than that of the subunit protein group. The viral vector group had a slope of the curve similar to that of the mRNA group, but the initial mRNA efficiency was higher than that of the viral vector, so the mRNA was more resistant to the changes. of the virus higher than other forms of vaccine
The team applied this prediction formula to omikron viruses that are evolving from vaccines and found that the lethal and subunit proteins were ineffective against all omikrons, while viral vectors appeared to be effective. BA.1 at approximately 10+%, but when the virus was converted to BA.1.1, BA.2 and BA.3, efficacy was below 0. The mRNA vaccine was the only efficacy remaining in all omikron groups. taken into the calculations, but decreased from 33% per BA.1 to 11.9% per BA.2 and others. It is expected that the figure per BA.4/5 may cause mRNA to drop even further.
It’s interesting information and shows that vaccines may need to be updated. And if there is a tool like this to help predict, it will help to design vaccines much faster than before.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01877-1
