Two years after the start of the large-scale war, the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, according to the latest report from the Kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate has difficulty approving aid, and the European Union (EU) has had every difficulty in passing a 50 billion aid on February 1, 2024, from the Hungarian bloc. Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the German institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States, Germany, northern and eastern European countries, which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total, as of February 2022, countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military, financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros), for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. The United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or friendly former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by Denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). The rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). The three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally Belarus, have been among the most generous donors since the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, immediately behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
How can Ukraine enhance its relationship with Western allies to ensure continued support in the current geopolitical climate?
Interview Between Time.News Editor and Defense Analyst, Dr. Elena Markov
Time.News Editor (TNE): Welcome, Dr. Markov! It’s a pleasure to have you with us today as we delve into the current state of Western support for Ukraine. Your insights will be invaluable in understanding these complex dynamics.
Dr. Elena Markov (EM): Thank you for having me! It’s crucial to discuss this topic given the ongoing implications of the war.
TNE: Indeed, it is. Recent reports, particularly from the Kiel Institute, indicate a troubling decline in aid to Ukraine, especially from August 2023 to January 2024. What are the main factors behind this reduction in support?
EM: Several factors are at play here. One significant aspect is the changing political landscape in the U.S. The Senate has been grappling with internal divisions that are delaying the approval of new aid packages. Political fatigue is also setting in, as the initial momentum for supporting Ukraine has started to wane.
TNE: That’s a poignant observation. The report highlighted difficulties faced by the European Union as well, particularly with the failed attempt to pass a €50 billion aid package. How does this impact the overall stability of aid to Ukraine?
EM: The failed package is indeed a worrying sign. It indicates a lack of consensus amongst EU member states, particularly with nations like Hungary voicing strong opposition to further aid. This discord can weaken the EU’s ability to present a united front, making it more challenging to rally support for Ukraine in the long term.
TNE: So, is it fair to say that we are seeing a shift from a broad coalition of support to a more concentrated group of donors?
EM: Exactly. The data suggests that aid is increasingly concentrated among a few key nations, primarily the U.S. and Germany. We’re witnessing a decrease in the number of countries willing to contribute, and that reliance on a core group can lead to vulnerabilities. If any of those nations change their stance or face domestic pressures, it could severely impact aid flows.
TNE: That’s quite alarming. As we look ahead, do you foresee this trend continuing? What might influence future decisions on aid allocations?
EM: It’s difficult to predict with certainty, but if current political dynamics persist—especially in the U.S. and among EU nations—I would expect this trend to continue. The economic challenges and domestic issues facing many donor countries may lead to prioritizing national interests over international support. Additionally, as winter ends and the season shifts, it’s possible that the urgency for aid could be reconsidered, but that will depend on on-ground developments in Ukraine.
TNE: It seems like the situation is quite precarious. In your opinion, what should Ukraine do to maintain or even enhance its support from the West moving forward?
EM: Ukraine needs to continue effective communication with its allies, demonstrating the tangible outcomes of Western support and how it contributes to broader European security. Building effective narratives around its needs, successes in the war, and the consequences of decreased support will be vital in maintaining momentum.
TNE: Insightful points, Dr. Markov. As we wrap up, what final thoughts do you have on the potential paths forward for Ukraine and its allies?
EM: I believe sustained diplomatic efforts will be essential. Ukraine must not only assure its allies of its commitment to fighting but also advocate for shared values and mutual benefits of cooperation—particularly as we move into a period where every bit of military and financial support will count more than ever.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Markov, for your expertise and insights on this critical issue. Your perspectives will certainly aid our readers in understanding the evolving dynamics of support for Ukraine.
EM: Thank you for having me—it’s been a pleasure to discuss such an important topic.