Experts warn that Donald Trump’s second term will have major impacts on a warming world, and on international efforts to combat climate change.
President-elect Trump has long made his climate skeptic clear; During his first presidency between 2017 and 2021, he described it as a “hoax,” and during his last campaign he again described it as ”one of the biggest hoaxes in history.”
A threat to global climate efforts
Alice Hale, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that “Trump’s victory is a real obstacle in the global battle against climate change,” stressing that “the United States under Trump’s leadership will retreat from efforts reduce international and domestic. greenhouse gas emissions, and the focus will be on increasing greenhouse gas production.” Fossil fuels.
According to a report released by the European Union’s Climate Change Service, 2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record, with global warming exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius barrier Scientists have sounded the alarm long about the need to halve global emissions by 2030 to avoid imminent climate catastrophe.
Trump promised before the elections that strong international coordination is needed to achieve this goal, but environmental experts warn that Trump’s “America First” policies may not be in line with climate cooperation, although the United States is the second largest exporter after China, and the largest in history to increase fossil fuel production and increase dependence on oil and gas, while reducing investments in clean energy.
said Clarence Edwards, Executive Director of the Office of…E3GThe Washington-based nonprofit, which works at the intersection of climate and geopolitics, said, “Donald Trump and his supporters clearly see oil and gas as the cornerstone of US global power, and that should not be trifled with.”
During his first term, the Trump administration supported oil and natural gas exploration, including in protected areas such as the Alaska Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and encouraged the construction of pipelines such as Keystone. XL“And Dakota Access.”
Before the election, Trump expressed his intention to continue this approach if he wins, but Edwards explained that this does not necessarily mean a complete marginalization of renewable energy, but simply that the next administration more on hydrocarbons.
What does Trump’s second term mean for the Paris Agreement?
Trump’s victory comes just days before the start of the United Nations climate conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan. During his first term, the president-elect withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The step to withdraw from the agreement was highly controversial at the time, and although the United States rejoined it under current President Joe Biden, Clarence Edwards believes the next president is likely to withdraw again.
“That’s the wrong sign,” Edwards explained. “It is important for the United States to live up to its commitments and be a committed player on the international stage,” adding that Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could raise questions about the country’s accord. commitment to other international climate agreements.
Implications for environmental policies
During his first term, the Trump administration rolled back many environmental regulations, including those related to carbon emissions and pollutants such as methane.
Barry Rapp, a professor of environmental policy at the University of Michigan, predicts that returning to relaxing these regulations will mean that the United States will fall short of the 2030 climate goals of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and most of other greenhouse gases,” says Rapp.
While some fear the inflation-reduction law, signed by Biden and aimed at promoting renewable energy projects, electric vehicles and battery development, could be at risk under the Trump administration, Edwards believes it could This has a limited impact. He said: “The law has been very successful in stimulating clean industries and creating jobs in various states, especially in states with a Republican majority, which account for about 70% of the investments in this law, and as so I think there could be some amendments. , but that “It will probably be canceled completely.”
Raab agrees with this view, noting that “in practice, fully repealing the law requires congressional approval.”
The Trump administration is likely to reduce or eliminate some spending items related to the law, if they are not in line with his directives.
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Interview: The Consequences of Trump’s Second Term on Climate Policy
Moderator: Welcome to Time.news. I’m your host today, and we’re diving into a topic that is critical for our future: climate change and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s second term as president. Joining us is Alice Hale, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations. Alice, thank you for being with us.
Alice Hale: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
Moderator: Let’s get right to it. Experts are warning that Trump’s second term could threaten international climate efforts. Can you explain specifically how his leadership may obstruct global climate initiatives?
Alice Hale: Absolutely. Trump’s track record during his first presidency demonstrated a clear dismissal of climate science—he referred to climate change as a ”hoax.” If he were to secure a second term, we can expect a similar retreat from international and domestic commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. His administration is likely to prioritize fossil fuel production over renewable energy investment.
Moderator: That’s a striking concern. You mentioned that the U.S. might increase its greenhouse gas production. How significant is this given our position in the global climate agenda?
Alice Hale: It’s quite significant. The United States is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally and has historically been a major player in international climate negotiations. If Trump continues to advocate for “America First” policies, it suggests a lack of commitment to important agreements like the Paris Accord, which aim to limit global temperature rise. His approach could significantly undermine progress in reducing emissions not just domestically but also internationally.
Moderator: In light of reports indicating that 2024 is expected to be one of the hottest years on record, how urgent is the need to halve global emissions by 2030?
Alice Hale: The urgency cannot be overstated. Scientists have consistently warned that we need drastic reductions in emissions to avoid catastrophic climate impacts. If the U.S. retreats from its commitments, it will not only hinder our ability to meet those goals but could also lead to other countries following suit—resulting in a domino effect that deepens the global crisis.
Moderator: Trump has promised strong international coordination, yet his previous actions suggest otherwise. What specific challenges do you see in his philosophy towards international climate cooperation?
Alice Hale: The main issue lies in the contradiction of his messaging. While he may vocally support international coordination, his actions—such as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and supporting fossil fuel interests—tell a different story. These “America First” policies risk isolating the U.S. from collaborative climate solutions, particularly at crucial gatherings like COP29, where multilateral dialogue is essential.
Moderator: You mentioned the potential for another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. What are the ramifications of such a move?
Alice Hale: A U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would signal to the world that the U.S. is not serious about its climate commitments. This could undermine trust in America’s leadership and disincentivize other nations from adhering to climate protocols themselves, creating a greater risk of failure in the global fight against climate change.
Moderator: In your view, what should be done to counteract the potential negative impacts of Trump’s presidency on climate policy?
Alice Hale: It’s crucial for advocates, scientists, and policymakers to continue raising awareness and pushing for accountability. Engaging local communities and building bipartisan support for climate initiatives are vital steps. Furthermore, there must be sustained pressure on the administration to remain committed to international agreements and to invest more significantly in renewable energy technologies.
Moderator: Thank you, Alice, for your insights into this pressing issue. It’s clear that the stakes for our planet are incredibly high. We’re grateful for your perspective and expertise.
Alice Hale: Thank you for having me. The conversation is essential, and I hope it continues to inspire action and awareness.
Moderator: And thank you to our audience for tuning in. Stay informed and engaged in the climate dialogue, especially as we continue to navigate these critical times.