This Wednesday, the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force. The guns are silent after almost two months of Israeli invasion and some 4,000 dead (more than 3,800 Lebanese and 140 Israelis). The result of an agreement reached the day before with the United States and France as guarantors, President Joe Biden assures that the pact “is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities”. That it is is not a fact but a possibility.
In any case, during these 60 days Israel will keep its troops deployed in southern Lebanon. And not only that, the Israeli side managed to ensure that the agreement included it your right to take coercive measures if you detect what you consider to be a threat to your security.
What we know about the agreement
The exact details of the agreement were not provided, but one can deduce what Biden explained and what was leaked. the keys to the pact:
Hezbollah will retreat from the south of the country towards the Litani River. They are located approximately 30 kilometers north of the Blue Line which currently serves as the internationally recognized border between the two countries (this is where UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping operation, is deployed, with the participation of 650 Spanish soldiers ).
According to a senior American official, Hezbollah fighters will be replaced by Lebanese Army forces in that area, which will ensure that infrastructure and weapons are removed and cannot be rebuilt. “Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to rebuild,” Biden said.
The Blue Line, guarded
At that point, the Lebanese Armed Forces will redeploy their troops along the Blue Line (unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel). Under the agreement, the Lebanese army is expected to deploy 5,000 soldiers in the south.
Israel withdraws… gradually
In exchange, Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from Lebanon during those 60 days. Biden says this will allow civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes.
Israel reserves the right to use force
Tel Aviv will have the right to take enforcement measures if it detects what it considers to be a threat to its security. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would “maintain full freedom of military action” in Lebanon “with the full understanding of the United States.”
Five peacekeepers
A committee led by the United States will have the task of verifying that both sides respect their commitments. Apparently, the United States and France will join the existing tripartite mechanism (UNIFIL, Lebanon and Israel) which will be tasked with monitoring violations of the pact.
Doubts and unanswered questions
Will Lebanon be able to maintain peace? What has been agreed now is not much different from what was envisaged in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which marked the end of the conflict in 2006. According to it, areas south of the Litani should be free of all armed personnel or by weapons that those of the Lebanese State and those of UNIFIL were not.
Then the Lebanese army should have been able to impose peace… and it failed. Now, What will the Lebanese troops do to enforce the ceasefire? If necessary, would they confront Israeli soldiers or Hezbollah militants?
After all, Lebanese defense officials have already said so They don’t have the resources to comply their obligations under the agreement. A half-destroyed country has no personnel, no weapons, no money.
Will the guarantors of the pact or Lebanon’s international allies guarantee this? “There will be no American combat troops in the area, but there will be military support for the Lebanese armed forces… even together with the French army,” said un official cited by BBC.
And a big question: who will pay for the reconstruction of Lebanon that the Israeli army’s offensive against Hezbollah destroyed?
According to Western analysts, Hezbollah has significantly weakened and could be the It’s time for the Lebanese government to re-establish control throughout the entire territory of the country. From Israel, Netanyahu assures that the ceasefire will serve to isolate Hamas in Gaza, increase pressure on the Strip and rearm militarily.
How could the involvement of UN peacekeepers impact the stability of the region post-ceasefire?
Title: A Fragile Peace: Interview with Middle East Expert Dr. Sarah Mikhail on the Recent Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah
Time.news Editor: Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Mikhail. The recent 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah surely comes as a relief after nearly two months of intense conflict. What are your initial thoughts on this agreement brokered by the U.S. and France?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: Thank you for having me. This ceasefire is a significant step, but it’s essential to approach it with cautious optimism. The death toll is devastating—over 4,000 lives lost, most of whom are Lebanese civilians. While the guns may be silent for now, the underlying issues remain unresolved.
Time.news Editor: Absolutely. One key point in the agreement is the phased withdrawal of Israeli troops while deploying Lebanese forces in southern Lebanon. How crucial is this step for maintaining peace?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: It’s critical. The plan to have the Lebanese Army replace Hezbollah in southern Lebanon aims to establish some level of security and stability. However, the effectiveness of this deployment will largely depend on the Lebanese Army’s capacity to maintain control in the face of possible provocations from Hezbollah or other groups.
Time.news Editor: Biden has indicated that the ceasefire could lead to a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” Do you believe that this is a realistic outcome?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: Hope for a permanent peace is certainly desirable, but we need to recognize that this is merely a possibility, not a certainty. The agreement allows Israel to retain the right to use military force if they perceive a threat, which may lead to further escalation if tensions rise. The delicate balance between security needs and the rights of the Lebanese people remains an ongoing challenge.
Time.news Editor: The deployment of UN peacekeepers and a monitoring committee led by the U.S. is another interesting aspect of this agreement. How effective do you think this oversight will be?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: The involvement of a monitoring committee can help in maintaining communication between both sides and observing adherence to the ceasefire. However, history has shown that these mechanisms can be limited in their effectiveness. The real test lies in the political will of both Lebanon and Israel to adhere to the agreements, as well as the potential for outside interference.
Time.news Editor: Speaking of political will, how do you see the role of local political factions, particularly Hezbollah, influencing the situation going forward?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: Hezbollah’s role will be paramount. Although they are reportedly retreating from southern Lebanon, their ability to influence political and military decisions remains significant. There’s a fine line between maintaining deterrence as a resistance group and being a liability in terms of peace efforts. Their next moves will be critical to determining whether this ceasefire holds or if we plunge back into violence.
Time.news Editor: Given the history of unresolved tensions, particularly since UN Security Council Resolution 1701 post-2006 conflict, what are some indicators we should watch for to gauge whether this ceasefire will last?
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: We should closely observe any military movements—both from Israel and Hezbollah—as well as the nature of cross-border incidents. Additionally, the reaction of the Lebanese populace to the Lebanese Army’s deployment will be telling. If there are protests or resistance against the army’s presence, it may complicate the ceasefire efforts. Lastly, international responses and any shifts in the geopolitical landscape will also have a significant impact.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Mikhail, for shedding light on this complex situation. Your insights help us understand the precarious nature of peace in the region.
Dr. Sarah Mikhail: Thank you for addressing these critical issues. It’s vital we keep the conversation going, as the fate of many lives rests on these developments.
Time.news Editor: Indeed. We’ll be keeping a close eye on this situation as it unfolds. Thank you once again for your expertise.