Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has threatened the European Union to close transit through Belarus. The news about this spread across many media, with the main attention being drawn to the threat to block the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, because it sounded against the backdrop of an acute gas crisis in the EU. DW has gathered facts to assess the seriousness of the statement made.
Lukashenka threatens to block the transit of trucks from the EU to Russia
First of all, it should be borne in mind that at a government meeting, Lukashenka threatened to block any cargo flows through the Belarusian territory: “And if we close the transit through Belarus? and, for example, for the Germans, what will happen then? “
Alexander Lukashenko
Thus, Lukashenko spoke, first of all, about freight road transport, while focusing specifically on the supply of goods from Poland and Germany to Russia. DW stated at the end of May that blocking transit between the EU and the Russian Federation would, in fact, be the only opportunity for Minsk to inflict any tangible economic damage to the FRG and other EU countries in the context of the “sanctions war.”
However, from such a blockade, Russia would suffer to a greater extent, which precisely through Belarus and precisely by road brings in the overwhelming part of its European imports – both industrial and consumer goods. The need to redirect their flow through the Baltic countries, where there are roads, despite Lukashenka’s words, would have made the route longer, and supplies more expensive, which would have further spurred the current inflation in Russia.
Then Lukashenka touched upon gas transit: “We are heating Europe – they still threaten us that they will close the border. And if we cut off natural gas there?” Here, first of all, it should be recalled that Belarus does not extract or export natural gas, it is just a transit country for Russian gas, so if anyone “heats Europe”, it is Russia.
What routes does Gazprom take to supply natural gas to Europe?
In the Russian Federation, the state-controlled company Gazprom has a monopoly on the export of natural gas through pipelines. To supply blue fuel to its largest buyer – Germany, as well as other countries of Central, Western and Eastern Europe, Gazprom has three operating transport corridors at its disposal.
The Nord Stream gas pipeline with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year, which has just marked the tenth anniversary of the start of operation, has been laid across the bottom of the Baltic Sea directly from Russia to Germany.
The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline runs through Belarus and Poland. It was laid in 1999 and in 2006 reached its design capacity of 33 billion cubic meters per year.
According to the agreement valid until the end of 2024, Gazprom is obliged to pump 40 billion cubic meters annually through the gas transportation system of Ukraine, but the throughput of this system in the direction of Europe is over 140 billion cubic meters, so the Russian company always has the opportunity to book additional volumes of supplies.
In addition, to supply Southeast Europe, Gazprom is using the second string of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, called the Balkan Stream, which can transport 15.75 billion cubic meters through Turkey to Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary.
We also add that Nord Stream 2 has been fully built in the Baltic, but has not yet been certified in Germany and has not received permission from the EU to use two of its lines with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters.
Yamal-Europe has lost its importance for Gazprom
Thus, the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which Lukashenka could theoretically shut down, is a major, but far from the only way of delivering Russian gas to the EU, including Germany. Moreover, this transport corridor is clearly losing its significance for Gazprom.
“Against the background of the existence of a long-term contract with Ukraine and the priority of loading the Nord Stream and Turkish Stream gas pipelines, Yamal-Europe is still playing a balancing or closing role in Gazprom’s logistics,” the news agency states in its review of the gas market. Interfax “.
Gazprom sends less and less gas in transit through Belarus
It points out that for the new gas year 2021/22, which began on October 1, Gazprom did not make long-term reservations for this line, preferring so far to book for a month. ”Thus, in October this route to Germany received 1.3 million cubic meters per hour, as earlier this year, this figure was 3.5 million cubic meters In early November, supplies via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline were temporarily stopped altogether.
It turns out that Lukashenka threatens to shut down exactly the gas pipeline that is currently of the least importance for Gazprom and may completely lose it after the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, even if the EU, for antimonopoly reasons, allows the use of only one of its lines (capacity 27.5 billion cubic meters per year). Moreover, in the event of a blockade of this transport route by Belarus, Moscow will even have an additional argument in favor of Nord Stream 2, laid directly between Russia and Germany, bypassing transit countries.
Putin instructed to fill gas storage facilities in Germany and Austria
It should also be borne in mind that Yamal-Europe does not belong to the Republic of Belarus at all. Gazprom is the sole owner of the Belarusian section of the gas pipeline, “the official website of the Russian company says. So the Lukashenka regime could probably technically turn the valve on its territory, but this would be an illegitimate and openly hostile action in relation to not just to the legal Russian owner, namely to the state company of the Russian Federation, which is “heating Belarus”.
On October 27, Vladimir Putin instructed Gazprom to fill gas storage facilities in Germany and Austria
Gazprom, through its German subsidiary Wingas, also owns a section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline in Germany. This section is connected to the gas transmission system controlled by the Russian company and thus to the largest in the Federal Republic of Germany and the entire EU, Gazprom’s underground gas storage facility, Rehden. And “Gazprom”, according to the “request” voiced by Vladimir Putin at the end of October, from November 8, just should ensure “planned work to increase the volume of gas” in UGS facilities in Austria and Germany.
So if Lukashenka now closes the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, he will, in fact, sabotage the order of the Russian president. His press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on November 12 in Moscow that the Russian Federation has fulfilled and will fulfill all obligations to provide European consumers with gas regardless of the actions of Minsk, and assured that Lukashenko did not coordinate his statements with the Kremlin.
In turn, the representative of the Ministry of Economy and Energy of Germany, Susanne Ungrad (Susanne Ungrad) stressed on November 12 that the security of gas supply in Germany is still ensured and reminded: “There are other gas pipelines through which Russian gas enters the EU.”
The day before, the European Union reacted to Lukashenka’s statement. “In matters of gas supplies, we must make the most of our relations with the supplying countries – African states, Norway, Russia, and we will not allow Lukashenka to intimidate us with his threats,” said European Energy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni at a press conference in Brussels.
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