October marks the beginning of the end of the rainy season in Guatemala, a change that is already being perceived in several regions of the country. Next, we tell you when will winter end in Guatemala 2024 and what climatic phenomena could influence weather conditions during the last months of the year.
When will winter end in Guatemala 2024?
The cold is already beginning to be felt in several parts of the country, while the rains are decreasing, normal characteristics of October, the month in which “the rainy season generally ends in most of the country and the cold season begins.” According to the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology ―Insivumeh―October is a month historically marked by a progressive reduction in the intensity and frequency of precipitation, although this transition can vary by region.
In its climate outlook report for this month, Insivumeh points out that, climatologically, the rains begin to become less frequent in the southern to central areas of the country from October 20. This mainly affects the west, central highlands, eastern valleys, the Pacific region and the bocacosta, where rains begin to subside as the month progresses.
However, in other regions such as the north, the Northern Transverse Belt and the Caribbean, rains may continue due to the influence of weather systems from mid-latitudes, such as cold fronts. The interaction of these cold fronts with low pressure systems can increase the risk of heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding in those areas. In addition, some rain is expected to continue during the first fifteen days of Novemberdue to the possible formation of tropical cyclones or the influence of low pressure systems.
Monthly precipitation forecast
He precipitation forecast for october points out that, in some regions of the country, such as the Pacific, the bocacosta and the southeastern valleys of the east, slightly above normal rainy conditions are expected. Meanwhile, in other areas such as central Petén, the center and east of the Northern Transversal Belt and the Caribbean, precipitation could be slightly below usual.
The rest of the country should experience near-normal rainfall conditions, indicating that overall rainfall will begin to gradually decrease as winter bids farewell.
Conditions of the La Niña phenomenon could affect Guatemala
The Insivumeh has also highlighted the influence of the La Niña phenomenon on the climatic behavior of Guatemala. For the October-December 2024 quarter, there is a 60% chance of La Niña conditions, a 39% chance of neutral conditions, and only a 1% chance of El Niño.
La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are colder than usual, affecting global rainfall and temperature patterns.
According to historical data compiled by Insivumeh, in Guatemala, during most years in which this phenomenon occurs, rainfall in the country registers normal or above normal accumulations, which coincides with the conditions foreseen in the monthly rain forecast. .
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