2024-04-27 17:51:32
New Delhi : Lok Sabha elections are being held in the country. Voting for two phases of the seven-phase elections has been completed. However, this time the inclination among people towards voting seems to be less than last time. Like the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, voting in the second phase too has decreased as compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the first phase, 64 percent voting took place on 102 Lok Sabha seats in 21 states. Whereas in the last Lok Sabha elections, more than 70 percent voting took place on those seats also. Similarly, this time in the second phase, about 63 percent votes were cast in 88 Lok Sabha seats of 13 states. This was much lower than the 70.09% voting in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Voting in big states like UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan was much less than expected. Voting was 54.85% in UP, 55.08% in Bihar, 57.83% in Maharashtra, 57.88% in MP. Maximum votes were cast in Tripura, Manipur, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal.
Is voting decreasing due to heat?
The scorching heat and heat wave is also being considered as one of the reasons for low voting in the Lok Sabha elections. First there are heat wave conditions in North-East India and now in North India. It is extremely hot from UP to Bihar. In such a situation, the impact on election campaign is also being seen. At the same time, low voting percentage has increased the tension of political parties. The weather department has already predicted that this time it will cross 40 degrees by the end of April. From the Election Commission to the Meteorological Department, everything from the Election Commission to the Meteorological Department is engaged in the exercise regarding voting and preparations related to it amid the severe heat wave. Two days ago, Election Commission officials held a meeting with Meteorological Department officials. Mrityunjay Mahapatra, Director General of Meteorology in the India Meteorological Department, says that the IMD is in constant touch with the Election Commission. Along with seasonal forecasts, there are monthly, week-wise and daily forecasts from the weather department. Apart from this, they are giving predictions about the heat to the Election Commission. Earlier, on April 11, the Prime Minister had also called a meeting to review the preparations for the summer season.
Will BJP reach beyond 400 due to low voting in North India, know expert’s opinion
Heat forecast during elections
The Meteorological Department says that from April to June this year, the temperature in most parts of the country is likely to be above normal. Especially in Central India and Western Peninsular India, there will be more heat this time. Two phases of Lok Sabha elections have been completed. Now the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh phase of elections are to be held on May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1 respectively. During this period, the effect of heat wave will continue in most parts of the country. A study based on data from the Indian Meteorological Department shows that during the campaign period for the Lok Sabha elections, the maximum temperature could be 35°C or more in about 72% of the constituencies. Specifically, the 59 seats may face temperatures between 40-42 degrees Celsius. Whereas at 194 seats the temperature can be seen between 37.5-40 degrees Celsius.
There is a danger of ‘scorching’ of votes in the second phase due to heat wave, the temperature may remain like this during the second phase of voting.
What are experts saying
Despite awareness campaigns by the Election Commission of India, NGOs and TV channels, the huge decline in voter turnout in the biggest election of the world’s largest democracy is not good news. Earlier, in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, people had voted with more enthusiasm. This time people are not coming out of their homes to vote. This has also increased the concern of the seven Election Commissions of political parties. However, experts believe that along with the weather, low activity of opposition parties is also a reason for the decline in voting percentage. Apart from this, nowadays more campaigning is going on on social media than on the ground. Due to this, there is no enthusiasm in voting as before. Many people believe that overconfidence among BJP voters and workers could also be the reason for low voting. They feel that the election result is almost certain. If only Modi comes on the other side, the slogans may reduce the enthusiasm among the opposition voters. Apart from this, dissatisfaction of caste groups like Rajput/Jat in Rajasthan and Western Uttar Pradesh can also be the reason for low voting.
Long weekend, increased waiting in trains, scorching summer days… candidates are in tension after low voting in the first phase.
Who will sweat?
Now the question is who will suffer due to low voting percentage this time? However, nothing can be said directly about the results related to low voting percentage. Also it is important to note that there is no strong correlation between voting percentage and election results. An analysis of 16 elections from 1957 to 2019 shows that 10 times, the ruling party returned 6 times even when the voting percentage increased. On the contrary, there were 6 occasions of decline in voting when opposition parties formed the government 4 times. In 1980, after low voting percentage, Congress made a comeback by defeating the Janata Party. At the same time, the decrease in voting percentage in 1980 resulted in the Congress losing power. In 1991, when the voting percentage declined, Congress returned to power. However, despite the decline in voting percentage in 1999, the government was not changed. In 2004, the decline in voting percentage resulted in the return of opposition parties to power. However, one thing is certain that the low voting percentage has a direct impact on the seats where the difference between victory and defeat is less. There the competition becomes very close. In such a situation, the decision can go in anyone’s favor. At the same time, some experts believe that the ruling party benefits from low voting percentage. It is believed that people are satisfied with the functioning of the government. In such a situation, if they do not want change, they do not come out of their homes to vote.