2024-11-16 08:25:00
Valery Karbalevich. Photo: nn.by
From July 2024, the authorities have started to play a more subtle game. If earlier they relied only on foot, then from now on they started releasing political prisoners in small batches. With the beginning of the election campaign, the manipulation process entered a new phase, writes political observer Valery Karbalevich on Pozirka.
Feeling: the ruler allowed the father to meet his daughter
12 November political prisoner Maria Kolesnikova hit my father. After more than a year and a half of total isolation. And this has been the main political story of the last few days, at least for the independent community. Everyone is happy, now there is evidence that she is alive.
And for this meeting to take place, it was necessary: 1) the intervention of a BBC journalist Stephen Rosenbergwhich forced him, with some urgent questions during the interview Alexander Lukashenko to promise something; 2) a letter from Mary’s father Alexandra Kolesnikova sent to Lukashenko with a request for the highest permission to meet his daughter.
That is, to allow a meeting between father and daughter, in Belarus you need a special personal permission from the ruler. Which, by the way, contradicts the extremely repressive Belarusian legislation.
These facts themselves say a lot about the terrible situation with political prisoners that has developed in the country.
If we return to Lukashenko’s interview with a BBC journalist on October 23 in Kazan, it is worth noting that the fragment related to the fate of Kolesnikova is very significant.
It shows that there is something personal in the ruler’s attitude towards this political prisoner. Questions about the fate of Maria cause irritation that he does not hide well (“I am firmly against the fact that you are starting to recognize individuals”).
Lukashenko has often said that he does not fight with women. But the entire history of the Kolesnikova massacre rejects this. As the meeting could only be authorized by the ruler personally there is no doubt as to who gave the order to establish an incommunicado regime in relation to Maria and other prominent political prisoners.
It is worth mentioning that Lukashenko did not miss the opportunity to humiliate this significant figure in the events of 2020. In response to the journalist’s response that she was not allowed to see her family, he said:
“What family? Where is her family, do you even know? You don’t even know what kind of family it is. Her father asked her to visit her. Please go. It was (we are talking about a meeting in the medical unit of the colony in November 2022, after Kolesnikova’s operation. – Pozirk). This family? If anyone else from family or friends wants to visit her, if you have a request, we will consider it. Maybe there is such a family who, like you, would not be interested in visiting Maria Kolesnikova. You care more about her than her family and friends.”
This is just a classic manifestation of Lukashenko’s style. As soon as the conversation turns to his political opponents, he immediately switches to an insulting tone.
Two parallel processes: harsh pardons and silent oppression
Lukashenko periodically states that there are no political prisoners in Belarus, because there are no “political” articles in the criminal code. However, the release of the political prisoners was organized in such a way that everyone would notice it.
From July to September, 115 people were pardoned – the highest number ever in the history of independent Belarus. This was done demonstrably. The authorities could release these political prisoners immediately, with a single decree. However, we decided to do it in parts, dividing it into four parts. The release was extended over three months to draw more attention to the process. So that the recipients can see or hear this signal.
On November 7, at the time of the October Revolution, another batch of political prisoners, 31 people, was pardoned.
Arrests and trials do not stop in political cases. According to human rights activists, from July 3 to September 16, 142 people received the status of political prisoners (and, mind you, 115 were released under amnesty during this period).
With the start of the election campaign, the situation became more complicated, and the process of manipulation entered a new phase. On the one hand, the political repression is more intense. All over the country, mass raids are taking place on people who have come in some way in protest activities. These are believed to be preventive measures designed to prevent protests at the end of the election campaign.
More precisely, not much was reported about them on the main TV channels, in the newspaper “Belarus Segodnya” or on the BelTA website. “Repentance videos” were published only in the chats and telegram channels of the security forces and other information about the detention of regime fighters was given. To intimidate people, turn on the fear.
And now even this is not there. And the average person, who only gets information from official sources, knows nothing about intensifying repression. He only reads reports that Lukashenko signed another amnesty decree.
Two parallel processes create such a surreal picture of a prosperous country against the background of hidden political terror.
Who are the signals sent to?
There are two possible reasons why Lukashenko began to gradually release political prisoners.
One target of this policy is the internal audience. Lukashenko is trying to improve his image in the context of the 2025 presidential campaign, to make him more humane. After all, it looks bad when political prisoners die in prison even from their supporters. Therefore, a significant proportion of those discharged are seriously ill or elderly.
The West is the second addressee of these actions. Interestingly enough, this is precisely what Lukashenko is trying to deny. In the same interview with a BBC journalist, he talks about the pardon of political prisoners: “This is not a step towards improving relations with you. If you don’t want a relationship with us, you don’t. We will survive without you… Without the West, remember. You mean nothing to me when it comes to freeing my people.”
The head of the regime wants to ensure that the West recognizes the results of the 2025 elections and his presidency. Because it is uncomfortable to live in conditions where a significant part of the world does not consider you a legitimate head of state.
The second reason is possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Moscow and the West in the near future. It is clear that Lukashenko would like to participate in them. What has he been talking about in public lately.
According to Lukashenko’s understanding, the West must come to grips with what happened in 2020 and turn the page and recognize the new reality.
For this reason, the ruler sends such small signals to the West, releasing a small number of political prisoners, trying to test the waters, explore the readiness of that side for negotiations, and the reaction of the EU and the United States test.
The West welcomed the release of some political prisoners, but called for an end to the repression and the release of all political prisoners. That’s where everything got stuck. It is still difficult to make forecasts for any future, since there are too many unknown inputs.
How has the Belarusian government’s strategy toward political prisoners evolved in recent months?
Interview: A Subtle Game of Power – Valery Karbalevich on Belarus’s Political Climate
Editor, Time.news: Today, we have the pleasure of speaking with Valery Karbalevich, a prominent political observer, who provides us with insight into the evolving political landscape in Belarus, particularly as we approach the 2025 presidential elections. Valery, welcome.
Valery Karbalevich: Thank you for having me. It’s a crucial time for Belarus, and I’m glad to share my observations.
Editor: In your recent article, you noted a shift in how the Belarusian authorities are handling political prisoners. Can you elaborate on the significance of this change?
Valery: Absolutely. Since July 2024, we’ve observed a more strategic approach from the authorities. Previously, the regime relied on direct repression, but they’ve started releasing political prisoners in small, controlled batches. This is clearly a maneuver to improve their image as we near the election campaign—a tactic to appear more humane while continuing to oppress dissent.
Editor: You mentioned the case of Maria Kolesnikova as a significant example. Could you explain why her situation resonates so strongly in this context?
Valery: Kolesnikova’s case has become emblematic of the regime’s brutality and calculated cruelty. Her recent reunion with her father after over a year and a half of isolation is a powerful narrative for the independent community. However, it required personal intervention from key figures—like a BBC journalist—just to facilitate a meeting that should be a basic right. It highlights the absurdity of needing the ruler’s explicit permission for something so personal, reflecting the dire situation for political prisoners in Belarus.
Editor: You described the environment as one of ‘silent oppression’ amidst more visible acts of clemency such as pardons. How do you see these dual narratives playing out in the public perception of Lukashenko?
Valery: It creates a strange dichotomy. On one hand, Lukashenko showcases his so-called ‘humanity’ through pardons; on the other, there are intensified crackdowns on dissent. The state-controlled media paint a rosy picture of a prosperous nation, while actual repressive activities like arrests and intimidation take place almost invisibly. This presents a surreal image to the average citizen, particularly those relying solely on official narratives.
Editor: In your view, who are the intended audiences for these signals?
Valery: There are two main audiences: first, the internal audience, where Lukashenko aims to polish his image ahead of the 2025 campaign; and second, the West. By releasing certain political prisoners, especially those in vulnerable conditions, he seeks to mitigate international criticism. The aim is to portray a façade of reform while maintaining strict control behind the scenes.
Editor: Given the current state of political repression and manipulation, what do you believe the future holds for Belarus?
Valery: It’s a precarious moment. The political landscape is fraught with challenges as the regime attempts to balance repression with the need for legitimacy. As we approach the elections, the potential for unrest is high. The fundamental question remains: will the people see through the regime’s tactics, and can a genuine opposition movement emerge despite the risks?
Editor: Thank you, Valery, for sharing your insights. It’s a challenging and complex situation, and your expertise sheds much-needed light on the realities facing Belarus today.
Valery: Thank you for the opportunity. Understanding the nuances of this situation is crucial for both the Belarusian people and the international community.