2023-11-26 07:30:22
Victor Martinez is a real estate agent in the Selva marítima and admits that in the last quarter the sales it has closed are 30% lower than a year ago. “The market has cooled, but many owners refuse to lower prices to make their property more attractive in order to attract more buyers. only those who have an immediate need to sell lower prices. The rest are waiting for the joy of shopping to recover again».
The delay of owners in realizing that the market is changing could be one of the reasons that explain the current mismatch. The latest data from the INE confirm falls in sales of more than 20% per year and declines of more than 30% in the contracting of mortgages for the purchase of housing. On the other hand, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Agenda, the average price of vacant housing rose by 5.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year in the Girona regions, the highest growth in the four Catalan provinces. The tax value of the square meter in Girona – 1763 euros – is the highest in more than a decade.
Neither the general escalation of prices nor the increase in the cost of financing due to interest rate hikes have, for the time being, slowed down demand in the Spanish and Catalan real estate market, and this imbalance with the shortage of supply is putting pressure on prices upwards APIs have warned in recent months that there is little supply of housing for sale. According to the study service of the idealista real estate portal, in Girona the number of homes for sale has fallen by 3% in the last year. However, in the most attractive areas for buyers, the drop is higher.
Experts also warn that the pace of new housing construction is accumulating significant deficits: around 100,000 homes are built annually throughout Spain, but 200,000 new families are formed.
Although the price increase of the last few years may seem very high, if the figures are put into context, the nominal price of housing has not increased too much of the real price in recent years, nor is it expected to do so in 2024. According to the European Central Bank, the housing overvaluation index was 10.3% for Spain, while the European average was around the 13$
A situation that continues to attract a lot of foreign demand to our market. After the pandemic, purchases by foreigners in Spain have recovered strongly and Girona is one of the provinces where this type of buyer has more weightconcentrating around 30% of the operations.
In this context, most analysts and study services they do not foresee very significant changes in the market. Most anticipate a moderate cooling in the coming months, but not all contemplate price drops.
One of the most pessimistic is the deputy general manager of donpiso, Emiliano Bermudezwhat predicts a 10% drop in sales and 5% in prices, a “downward” trend that is a “logical” consequence of several factors, among them, the increase in the price of life and mortgages; the lack of security and economic and legal stability for real estate investment as a result of the Housing Law and the formation of a “weak” Government; and the cyclical evolution of the housing market».
Cristina Ariasdirector of the Tinsa Study Service, predicts that eIn the first quarter of 2024, house prices are expected to stabilize, with an interannual variation of around 0%. And for 2024 as a whole, it envisages “an average year-on-year variation in the residential price of between +1% and -2.5%.” This range results from a continuation of the moderation observed in the market in 2023 after the acceleration experienced in 2022».
A recent report of Bankinter on the real estate market he points out that “prices should tend to stagnate and could even fall slightly next year. Although, if this correction occurs, it will be conjunctural due to the environment of high interest rates».
Carlos Balado, professor at the OBS Business School and director of Eurocofín, highlights the situation of insufficient supply of housing to cover the demand of a growing population. He believes that house prices will maintain a modest positive growth rate in 2024, around 2%.
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