Engaged for more than a hundred days in a devastating war, could Ukraine and Russia drag other countries into the conflict? Moscow pretends to ask the question, engaging with kyiv in another battle, in the field of communication, around the notion of ” escalade ».
On Sunday June 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at such a threat. If long-range missiles are delivered to Ukraine, “then we will draw the appropriate conclusions and use our weapons (…) to hit sites that we have not targeted so far”, he said, according to excerpts from an interview to be published on Sunday evening on the Rossiya-1 television channel. He did not define the range from which Moscow would react, nor specify which targets could be targeted. But he hints that they might be non-Ukrainian.
His statement comes as the United States decided to supply Ukraine with rocket launcher systems with twice the range of what it has been delivering so far. On Wednesday, June 1, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl explained that this armament, the Himars system, ” will provide Ukraine with additional precision in targeting from afar “. These multiple rocket launchers are mounted on light armor. They have a range of 70 kilometers, twice as much as the howitzers delivered by the United States so far.
Red line
Washington will deliver four of these systems. President Joe Biden made this decision by drawing a red line in the direction of the Ukrainians: these armaments should not be used to strike ” inside Russia “, he explained on May 30. The United States chose not to provide a superior weapons system, the MLRS, with a range of 300 kilometers, which would have allowed the Ukrainians to strike their adversaries well beyond the Donbass, where the fighting is raging.
The American administration has defined for several weeks a strategy which articulates powerful military support for Ukraine and a desire to permanently weaken the political system and the Russian military-industrial apparatus. Officially, the United States is not at war with Russia and does not seek regime change in the Kremlin. But their support helps to prolong the fighting and increase the human and financial cost for Moscow.
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The Kremlin reacted strongly to the announcement of the Himars deliveries by raising the possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and Russia. ” Any continuing, increasing arms delivery increases the risk of such a development said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on June 1.
« The United States is deliberately and carefully throwing oil on the fire “, denounced the same day the spokesman of the Russian presidency, Dmitry Peskov. “ The US line is to fight to the last Ukrainian. Such deliveries do not encourage Ukrainian leaders to want to restart peace negotiations ».
Distrust after the words of Emmanuel Macron
Ukrainian leaders contest this Russian argument. They do not want the fear of an extension of the conflict to deter the Americans, and especially the Europeans, from delivering to them certain armaments, particularly in the artillery sector, which their troops in the Donbass urgently need, in the face of the Russian superiority in this area.
« Some partners avoid giving the necessary weapons for fear of escalation. Climbing, really? Russia is already using the heaviest non-nuclear weapons, burning people alive. Maybe it’s time (…) to give us MLRS? »tweeted at the end of May Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency.
“Countries that are dragging their feet on supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine, they need to understand that every day they spend deciding, weighing different arguments, people are being killed”had added in Davos the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba.
It is in this context that the words of Emmanuel Macron, calling on Friday May 3 to take into account the state of mind of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, reinforced a mistrust in kyiv towards him. In the context of an interview granted to the regional press, the President of the Republic is questioned about ” an escalation risk in the war in Ukraine.
French support deemed too measured
« The situation is worrying, it’s truehe replies. That’s why I put so much time and energy into it. I have lost count of the conversations I have had with Vladimir Putin since December. In all a hundred hours in transparency and at the request of Zelensky. We must not humiliate Russia, so that the day the fighting stops, we can build a way out through diplomatic channels. I am convinced that it is the role of France, to be a mediating power ».
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Emmanuel Macron is thus already projecting himself in the perspective of negotiations, even though the priority of the Ukrainians is currently to resist the Russian offensive in the Donbass, not to cede too much territory, or even to counterattack. Although France has decided to deliver six Caesar self-propelled guns and other defensive armaments, its military support is perceived as too measured in kyiv.
The purpose of these supplies is to “make the price of the continuation of this aggression for Russia unbearable”, explained the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, who visited Ukraine on 30 May. France gives the impression of hoping and pleading for a quick ceasefire, which would open the space for a diplomatic initiative.
This posture causes heartburn in kyiv. “Calls to avoid humiliating Russia can only humiliate France or any other country,” said Dmytro Kuleba in a tweet Saturday, June 4. “Because it is Russia that humbles itself. We would all do better to focus on how to put Russia in her place. It will bring peace and save lives”.
The day before, the head of Ukrainian diplomacy had urged the French president to make the trip to kyiv. Since his visit to Volodymyr Zelenski on February 8, the day after his very long interview with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Emmanuel Macron has still not returned.