2023-10-30 20:36:17
The price of oil is expected to average $90 per barrel in the last quarter of 2023 if the conflict in Israel does not spread. It could fall back to $81 next year. unaihuiziphotography / unai – stock.adobe.com
DECRYPTION – If the conflict in Israel spreads to the Middle East, its price could reach 157 dollars, warns the World Bank.
Should we fear a surge in oil prices that would take the barrel to unprecedented price levels? This is the question that many have been asking since the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7. For three weeks, and while the Israeli army is attacking the Gaza Strip, the price of oil has only gained 6%. But several scenarios for the evolution of the conflict are possible, in particular an expansion of tensions to neighboring countries.
In the Middle East, where almost 40% of the oil consumed in the world is extracted, many states are major producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. , Iraq and even Iran, which exports 3 to 4 million barrels per day despite American sanctions. These nations could decide to limit their production or, in the case of Tehran, be forced to do so.
In the worst-case scenario, crude oil could reach $157, an increase of almost 80% compared to the…
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