Geopolitical tensions and the March 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated global efforts to diversify supply chains, thrusting Eurasia’s overland trade networks into strategic prominence. A new World Bank report projects that upgrading the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route could triple trade and create millions of new jobs by 2040.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Traffic To Overland Trade Routes
Global logistics is rapidly evolving into an instrument for limiting trade dependencies and adapting to persistent geopolitical risks. A March 2026 conflict in Iran triggered the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, shutting down a critical artery that normally carries roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade alongside substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers.
That maritime choke point volatility has forced states to race to redraw trade maps. Overland routes such as the Middle Corridor—also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route—have experienced dramatic growth. This 4,000-kilometer multimodal network links China to Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey. Freight volumes along the route reached around 4.5 million tons in 2024, marking a more than fivefold increase over seven years.
World Bank Projects Trans-Caspian Investments Will Triple Trade
Strategic investment in the Trans-Caspian route could more than triple trade, cut travel times in half, and add two million additional jobs by 2040, according to a report published by the World Bank. The study assesses the economic potential of nine countries along the corridor: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which share a combined population of nearly 200 million people.
Stronger transport links are projected to raise gross domestic product across those nine economies by 3.3 percent, equivalent to $58 billion at current activity levels, while boosting employment by 2.9 percent. To capture these gains, the World Bank identifies 16 priority core infrastructure projects valued at a combined $25.1 billion, with roughly 75 percent already underway or expected to begin in the near term.
| Priority Project in Kazakhstan | Cost |
|---|---|
| Moiynty-Kyrgyz railway line | $1.4 billion |
| Bakhty-Ayagoz railway and border crossing | $1.2 billion |
| Darbaza-Maktaaral railway | $550 million |
| Almaty bypass line | $315 million |
| Aktau Port expansion | $310 million |
| Altynkol-Zhetigen railway upgrade | $212 million |
Border Bottlenecks Slow Down Trans-Caspian Rail Shipments
Physical construction alone will not make the trade network competitive.
These complex procedures keep East Asia-Europe door-to-door shipments at approximately 47 to 50 days, compared with about 45 days through traditional maritime supply chains. Because rail transport generally costs more than shipping by sea, delivery times represent a serious commercial weakness. With coordinated reforms to customs, logistics, and border procedures, the report estimates that delivery times could fall to roughly 18 to 19 days by 2040.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Emerge as Central Logistics Hubs
As overland trade expands, transit states are shifting from the periphery to central positions in global logistics. Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked developing country by land area, hosts multiple international rail corridors. Empirical data show that cargo transport from China to Europe through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea surged by 125 percent, rising from under 1.5 to over 3.3 million tons between 2022 and 2024.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has actively integrated its infrastructure strategies with both East-West and North-South transport corridors.
Located at the intersection of the East-West and North-South corridors, Azerbaijan has become an important link and gateway between Asia and Europe. The Middle Corridor links Central Asia across the Caspian Sea with the South Caucasus, Türkiye and Europe, while the emerging Zangezur Corridor, also known as the TRIPP connectivity route, will further strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a regional hub, and create new opportunities for trade, investment and industrial cooperation across Eurasia.
Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan
At the CAMCA Regional Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Economy Mikayil Jabbarov noted that ongoing development at the Port of Alat, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and expanding domestic shipbuilding capabilities could triple trade along the Middle Corridor and halve transit times by 2030.