Prediction market Kalshi sent Netflix a cease-and-desist letter on Friday demanding the removal of a trailer for the documentary Instadocs: The Prediction Games. Kalshi alleges the footage is defamatory and falsely suggests the company violated a Nevada court order by permitting sports betting in the state.
The dispute centers on a scene from the trailer featuring a party in Las Vegas during the World Cup final. In the footage, traders are seen celebrating winnings, with one man showing a transaction receipt for a $5,000 wager on Spain to win the tournament. While the party took place on July 17, 2026, Kalshi argues the trailer creates a misleading impression that the trade occurred in real-time in Nevada.
The trailer features men who have made millions of dollars on prediction markets, probably eight figures, just over the course of the World Cup
gathered to watch the World Cup final. One guest in the footage declares, I like betting on Kalshi,
while another shows off the apparent $5,000 bet on a phone.
The Nevada Court Order and the 2025 Screenshot
At the heart of the legal threat is a regulatory battle with the Nevada Gaming Commission. A court order currently requires Kalshi to block sports-related markets within the state following a lawsuit filed by the Nevada Gaming Commission. Kalshi maintains it is complying with these directives, claiming that the trailer portrays the company as operating in violation of the injunction. In the cease-and-desist letter, Kalshi’s lawyers wrote that the trailer contained misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.
Netflix does not dispute the date of the trade shown in the trailer. A spokesperson told CNN and The Hollywood Reporter that the screenshot was of a bet made on May 16, 2025, which predates the Nevada court order. Netflix asserts that no footage in the documentary was fabricated and that the event was filmed at the Winible World Cup Watch Weekend. A Netflix spokesperson told CNN, The featured trader, with the trades on Spain, showed us a screenshot of his bet that was made in May 2025, prior to any Nevada court order.
Kalshi, however, argues the visual presentation is deceptive. The company pointed out that the phone screen displayed the word crop, suggesting the user was viewing a saved image rather than a live application. Furthermore, Kalshi claims the receipt is fabricated because it uses the term bet slip, a phrase the company avoids to maintain its legal standing as a commodity trading platform rather than a gambling site. Kalshi asserted the trailer is “defamatory” and contains both fabricated documents and false and misleading statements.
Internal Warnings and Allegations of Malice
The tension between the streamer and the prediction market escalated after Kalshi contacted a Netflix employee responsible for editing the trailer. According to the cease-and-desist letter, the employee admitted to not realizing the receipt was from 2025 or that it appeared to be a cropped screenshot.
While the employee reportedly agreed not to feature the receipt in the final documentary, the refusal to scrub the trailer has led Kalshi to argue that Netflix acted with actual malice under defamation law.
This conflict is particularly sharp given that Kalshi initially cooperated with the project. The film features interviews with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
The Stakes of ‘The Prediction Games’
The documentary is part of Netflix’s Instadocs series, designed for fast-turnaround storytelling. Premiering on July 26, the film examines the explosive rise of prediction markets, where users wager on everything from elections and weather to Taylor Swift’s wedding. The film also features an interview with regulator Michael Selig, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The scale of these markets is massive; more than $5.6 billion was wagered on the World Cup final alone through Kalshi and Polymarket. The documentary explores the phenomenon of tens of millions of people diving into these markets, noting risks such as bettors harassing war reporters to publish fake news and hackers manufacturing Spotify streams to win millions.
The legal friction between Kalshi and Netflix reflects a broader systemic risk for the industry. While these platforms are regulated as commodity trading, a coalition of over 40 states argues they are running unlicensed casinos. With judges in Washington, Michigan, and Nevada already blocking some activity, any perception of non-compliance could lead to severe court sanctions. Kalshi argued in its letter that these false statements jeopardize Kalshi’s legal standing in litigation that is highly material to Kalshi’s business
The outcome of this dispute will likely hinge on whether the framing of a trailer—designed for dramatic impact—crosses the line into factual misrepresentation. For Kalshi, the risk is not just a bruised reputation, but the potential for the trailer to be used as evidence of bad faith in its ongoing litigation with state regulators. In response to the claims, a spokesperson for Netflix told CNN, Netflix upholds the highest standards of journalistic integrity in its documentary programming.
