2024-02-03 08:03:18
Israel-Egypt relations have seen ups and downs over the years, even after the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1979. It is interesting that precisely in that year the Islamic revolution took place in Iran – and the deep and warm friendship forged between Jerusalem and Tehran suddenly went down the drain and was supposedly “replaced” by a cold, but strategic, peace with Cairo. The coldness that characterized the bilateral relations with Egypt from the beginning, will continue to accompany the two countries throughout the next four decades, except for a brief respite after the signing of the Oslo Accords.
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So far, the Egyptian and Israeli interests, especially the security ones, have prevailed over a long series of military operations that Israel conducted against the Palestinians, two intifadas and many other obstacles. They also managed to overcome the lack of basic affection inherent in the Egyptian people towards Israel in general and the Jews in particular – a product of long years of indoctrination and the education system in Egypt. Only in the past year have we witnessed isolated attacks by Egyptian soldiers or police against Israelis – one case along the shared border near Mount Harif in June of last year, where an Egyptian soldier attacked and killed a female fighter and a male fighter while on guard, and another case that occurred immediately after the events of October 7, when an Egyptian security guard shot a man An Israeli who visited the country as a tourist. However, the parties were quick to calm the spirits, try to lower the public profile of the scandals and continue broadcasting business as usual.
Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, there has indeed been a welcome change in the textbooks in the elementary schools in Egypt. Definite anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli messages were removed from the books, as part of Egypt’s effort to position itself as a responsible country that respects minorities in the eyes of the West. This is a step that is not obvious in a country where things change at an extremely slow pace, sometimes to the point of frustration, but the positive trend has stopped for the time being and has not yet extended to middle schools and high schools.
In practice, millions of Egyptians have been consuming anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli information and messages for decades. Every month of Ramadan, for example, Egyptians have become accustomed to watching anti-Israel series dealing with espionage affairs, in which the “evil” character is always embodied by Israeli Mossad agents, while the Egyptian heroes prevail over them in the end. This, although in recent years a certain effort has been made on the part of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to minimize these messages a little. These are just a few of the many examples of feeding the Egyptian public with anti-Semitic and anti-Israel feelings, messages and materials.
And hence, in the absence of a correction to this indoctrination, the general public in Egypt does not know the “beautiful Israeli” but the negative image of the Jew and the Israeli as depicted in literature, cinema, study materials and the Egyptian press. Added to this is the compassion towards the Palestinian people and their suffering, as it is portrayed in the social media in the Arab world and in Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya and similar networks. Thus a rather surreal situation was created in which the Egyptian regime, which fosters security interests that are by definition compatible with those of Israel and opposed to those of Hamas, was forced to take into account the very negative public opinion of the Egyptian street towards Israel and the very positive towards the Palestinians, and to act to a significant extent almost against its own self-interest .
When Tehran reaches out
As far as Israel’s current war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is concerned, on the one hand – the Egyptian regime is on the back foot to prevent Palestinians from the Gaza Strip from entering Sinai territory. The Egyptian leadership knows very well why it does not want this and understands that the “temporary” arrival of Palestinians could become absolutely permanent, as can be seen in Jordan and other places where Palestinian refugee camps have been maintained for decades.
Moreover, the Egyptians know the capabilities and ambitions of Hamas – in their view, the Muslim Brotherhood – to take advantage of the Palestinian stay in the Sinai Peninsula to strengthen their position in the arena. This is because they understand well the ideology that characterizes Hamas, and it is not a national ideology that gives any importance to independence from the Gaza Strip or from Judea and Samaria or even from the entire State of Israel. the opposite. It is a religious ideology that aspires to establish a worldwide Islamic caliphate, and therefore also includes Egypt.
On the other hand, the Egyptian public sympathizes with the Palestinian brothers in the Gaza Strip, sympathizes with them and expects the regime to act to help them. And so, Egypt finds itself aiming arrows at Israel, encouraging the transfer of more and more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, even though it is well aware that a significant part of the supplies has been stolen by Hamas, and repeatedly declares that the fighting in the Gaza Strip must stop – even though it would be very happy to see the destruction of Hamas.
Even more dangerous now is the apparent rapprochement between Iran and Egypt recently, even though this is almost never expressed in the Israeli media. In no way should we take our eyes off Iran’s tireless quest to buy influence in the region. In the background of this, it will be mentioned that Egypt’s relations with Iran are accompanied by great suspicion: Cairo well remembers Tehran’s efforts to spy on its territory, and more than once, over the years, there have been incidents of the removal of the Iranian ambassador from Egyptian soil due to such things.
The Iranian Foreign Minister at the Lebanon-Israel border (Photo: Arab Networks)
While Iran has been working for years inside the territory of Jordan to strengthen its position, and exploits the weakness of the regime in Jordan to strengthen its foothold in the small strategic country due to its proximity to Israel, its attempts so far to do the same in Egypt have come to naught. Therefore – the recent rapprochement between the countries is worrying and raises questions about the baits offered by Iran to Egypt in regards to the Houthis’ actions against ships passing through the region.
President Sisi’s latest statement on the subject, according to which “you will only attack ships destined for Israel” does not leave much room for doubt and is even more worrying, since it is possible that it is an Iranian-Egyptian understanding not to damage Egyptian economic assets, in exchange for systematic but consistent damage to Egypt’s relations with Israel. Iran also has great influence on the African continent, which is very important to Egypt, especially in Ethiopia, with which Egypt has a long-standing conflict regarding the Ethiopian dam built on the Nile and the issue of water distribution – a strategic interest that keeps it from sleeping. Iran, which has been strengthening its foothold in many countries on the African continent for years, is perhaps the only one that very wisely extends its hand to Egypt on an issue that simply does not concern any other party in the region. Iran, of course, will not be satisfied with providing help in this or that context without adequate compensation…
Mine in Philadelphia
To add to the above, the relations between Israel and Egypt have, admittedly, in recent years been based on excellent and ongoing cooperation, but mainly at professional levels. The political-strategic discourse with it is almost non-existent and cries out to the heavens for its absence, especially in light of the very high tensions that currently exist around the IDF’s intended activity in the Philadelphia axis. An ongoing political discourse on the strategic level, in the framework of which not only security issues will be discussed, but also the matter of incitement and indoctrination that take root in Egypt and consistently affect the relations of the two countries. The latter issue is not in terms of a nice addition, but has real strategic consequences.
Israel has its own levers and influence among other parties in the international arena, which it must exercise within the framework of strategic and comprehensive thinking in the context of Egypt. And this, in order to maximize the current situation for addressing issues that have not been addressed for decades. Egypt can no longer be allowed to bring surplus forces into the Sinai Peninsula to the peace agreement to deal with the threat of ISIS terrorism, as Israel has allowed, without demanding a return. In the end, coordinating positions regarding the Philadelphia Axis is extremely important, certainly for the continuation of the fighting in the Gaza Strip and the defeat of Hamas, But it is tactical. And again – a broad and strategic view of the challenges facing Egypt and the question of how we can assist it in creative ways is missing here, firstly so that it will not be tempted to lean on Iran and secondly so that Israel will also benefit from regional inputs over time.
This strategic dialogue with Egypt must be established with a very senior delegation from the government, but also with experts on the scene and Arab culture, and preferably one hour before. We have already learned that every truth we were convinced of before October 7th requires a fresh look. Failure to do so will be considered nothing less than catastrophic negligence.
The author is a MK and former deputy ambassador of Israel in Egypt, and an expert on foreign policy and the Arab arena
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