Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and his key ally is one step away from becoming a nuclear power. “Iran is within weeks of having enough enriched uranium to produce nuclear weapons,” says Michal Smetana, an analyst from the Institute of International Studies at the FSV UK in an interview for Spotlight.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and his key ally is one step away from becoming a nuclear power. | Video: Team Spotlight
A sufficient amount of enriched uranium for the production of nuclear weapons does not mean the production itself. According to the analyst, there are a number of other steps that will need to be taken in order for Iran to be able to produce functional weapons within a few months. “Nevertheless, the time from the moment when Iran is not a nuclear state and potentially can be has shortened significantly,” states Smetana.
A fundamental turn was caused in 2018 by the decision of then US President Donald Trump to withdraw from the historic agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of anti-Iranian sanctions. “With this step, Iran’s nuclear program received a completely new energy,” says the analyst.
With the resumption of US sanctions, a mutually beneficial alliance with Russia is essential for Iran. “Russia is very actively using drones supplied by Iran and recently also ballistic missiles that target Ukrainian infrastructure. Given the sanctions regime, Iran is undoubtedly an important ally,” Smetana emphasizes.
At the same time, the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and its development may affect what Iran will be able to supply to Russia, according to the analyst. However, the alliance between states is significant. “Given that Iran is on the sanctions list of the US and other Western countries, it is very actively looking for states that would be willing to do business with it and support it,” concludes the expert.
You can watch the entire interview in the video below or listen to it in your favorite podcast app. What were its main themes?
00:08-05:53 Just mention the use of nuclear weapons and make the world a little more nervous? And what does Michal Smetana read under Vladimir Putin’s tactics? What signal to the West is the Russian change in the rules for the use of nuclear weapons and how much has Russia lowered the threshold for their use?
05:53-11:04 To what extent is it necessary to count on the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and do senior officials take President Putin and his words seriously? Would the use of long-range weapons against targets on Russian territory mean an escalation of the conflict?
11:04-16:40 It is a good thing that the US plan to provide Ukraine with white phosphorus munitions failed, and what lines have been crossed in the current conflict? When using the term collective West, does the Kremlin make a distinction between who possesses nuclear weapons and who does not, and is it true that France’s arsenal is not dependent on NATO?
16:40-22:22 Is it normal in a war regime to have nuclear weapons on alert from the start of the conflict, and what role does mutual cooperation between Iran and the Russian Federation play? What is known about Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium and how has Iran taken advantage of the United States’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal?
22:22-30:28 Does Ukraine now have the capacity to protect its nuclear power plants and critical infrastructure, and how critical is Ukraine now? Can it be said already today whether the Kursk operation worked, and how big a problem the insufficient number of soldiers is for Ukraine? And what can Ukraine aim for as part of a fair plan to end the war?
Spotlight Aktuálně.cz – Michal Smetana | Video: Team Spotlight